Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL REGARDING THE TRACK OF
LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. YESTERDAY THE NAM HAD TRACK
NORTH OF THE GFS TRACK...TODAY THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK BUT SEEMS TO BE CONVERGING ON THE GFS TRACK. WITH
THIS IN MIND A STRATEGY OF BLENDING BOTH MODELS CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THE BEST OPTION. HAVE LOOKED AT A 50/50 BLEND OF QPF AND POP
FIELD BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...SO
HAVE DECIDED TO MANUALLY MODIFY PREVIOUS POP AND QPF IN ORDER TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. IN DOING THIS ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SEEMS
TO BE TO MOVE POP/QPF SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPERATURE AND WIND
HAVE USED MAV//MET COMBINATION. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE USED
NAM12.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY
WEDNESDAY DOWNEAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN MOVE TO THE EAST LATER FRIDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION LATER FRIDAY/SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS MID WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS LATE WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MID WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWERING TONIGHT IN EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPING RAIN WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD
THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WITH
LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED THE WIND GRIDS WITH THE NAM12 OUT
TO 12Z TUESDAY SINCE GFS WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG. A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
00Z MONDAY. BASED ON FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS OVER LOCAL
WATERS...HAVE INITIALIZED WAVE GRIDS WITH WNA WAVE WATCH III THEN
MANUALLY ADJUSTED LOWER BY 1 TO 2 FEET. SINCE WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND
LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT COMBINED SEAS TO BE MADE UP
MAINLY OF SOUTHERLY SWELL.

LONG TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...MIGNONE
LONG TERM/MARINE...NORCROSS
AVIATION...NORCROSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
540 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

ANZ050-MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-200945-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
540 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WHERE SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

STEADIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONCE AGAIN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG
THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN COME
TO AN END BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN COULD REACH 1.5
TO 2 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

HEWITT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
334 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

MEZ005-006-010-011-031-192030-

PISCATAQUIS...PENOBSCOT AND AROOSTOOK COUNTIES...

334 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...PISCATAQUIS...PENOBSCOT AND
AROOSTOOK COUNTIES...

AT 330 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS...STRETCHING FROM MILLINOCKET
TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROWNVILLE JUNCTION. THE LINE WAS MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 430 PM EDT INCLUDE...
    MILLINOCKET...        BROWNVILLE JUNCTION...
    EAST MILLINOCKET...   MEDWAY...             WYTOPITLOCK...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    HAIL...THE SIZE OF PEAS...
    LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 40 MILES AN HOUR...
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4576 6866 4540 6947 4527 6864 4574 6791

NOUHAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
430 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032-192130-

AROOSTOOK...PISCATAQUIS...PENOBSCOT AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

430 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK...PISCATAQUIS...
PENOBSCOT AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 429 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A BROKEN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS...STRETCHING FROM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF WYTOPITLOCK TO 39 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAST MILLINOCKET.
THE LINE WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 530 PM EDT INCLUDE...
    EAST MILLINOCKET...   MEDWAY...             WYTOPITLOCK...
    DANFORTH...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    HAIL...THE SIZE OF PEAS...
    GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY UP TO 35 MILES AN HOUR...
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4577 6824 4537 6956 4533 6876 4573 6754

NOUHAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
444 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

MEZ001-002-192145-

AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

444 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 442 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...STRETCHING FROM 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LIMESTONE TO 36 MILES WEST OF PORTAGE. THE LINE WAS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 545 PM EDT INCLUDE...
    WOODLAND...           LORING...             LIMESTONE...
    CARIBOU...            PORTAGE...            WASHBURN...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    HAIL...THE SIZE OF PEAS...
    GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY UP TO 35 MILES AN HOUR...
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4697 6771 4669 6949 4661 6894 4686 6727

NOUHAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
530 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

MEZ002-006-192230-

AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

530 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 529 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS 20 MILES WEST OF MARS HILL. THE STORM WAS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 630 PM EDT INCLUDE...
    RURAL AREAS...      BRIDGEWATER...        MARS HILL...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    HAIL...THE SIZE OF PEAS...
    GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY UP TO 35 MILES AN HOUR...
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...
    DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...UP TO 4 STRIKES PER MINUTE...

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4657 6825 4642 6835 4625 6770 4654 6772

NOUHAN

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