Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
413 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE 80S TODAY. HOWEVER...VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND A COOLER WIND FROM THE OCEAN
PREVAILED OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. A CLUSTER OF VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE WHEN THEY PROGRESS EAST INTO THE COOLER MARINE
INFLUENCED AIR THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL
SHROUD DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH
FRIDAYS WEATHER WITH THE GFS BRINGING A SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE NAM AND GEM
BRINGING VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW JUST WENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
WHILE THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIURNAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BELIEVE THUNDER SHOULD BE MENTIONED SO KEPT
IT IN FOR SATURDAY. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD IN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH THE CHANCE
OF LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK EAST ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...WHILE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE SOUTHERN
FRONT AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE
SECOND FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS...AND LIFR/VLIFR DOWNEAST IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON FRIDAY. WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 5 FT ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN SWELL SO WILL
NOT ISSUE SCA FOR THESE SEAS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
WATERS DUE TO THE HUMID AIR.

LONG TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...BLOOMER
LONG TERM/MARINE...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
521 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

ANZ050-MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-280930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
521 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS
PLACED THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREA WEATHER
SPOTTERS AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY SEVERE
WEATHER OR RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU.

HEWITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
604 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT KENT               47.26N 68.59W
07/27/2006                   AROOSTOOK          ME   PUBLIC

            CULVERTS, DITCHES AND DRIVEWAYS WASHED OUT ALONG ROUTE 1.
            RAINFALL REPORTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN AND AROUND
            FORT KENT.

&&

STUREY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
638 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

MEZ001-272345-

AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

638 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 637 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALLAGASH. THE STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 745 PM EDT INCLUDE...
    FORT KENT...          FRENCHVILLE...        MADAWASKA...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 45 MILES AN HOUR...
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...
    DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...5 TO 10 STRIKES PER MINUTE...

IF THREATENING SKIES APPROACH YOUR AREA...TAKE COVER IN A SHELTER OR
BUILDING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4732 6930 4692 6910 4741 6774 4770 6809

NOUHAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED STORM SPEED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
638 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

MEZ001-272345-

AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

638 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 637 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALLAGASH. THE STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 745 PM EDT INCLUDE...
    FORT KENT...          FRENCHVILLE...        MADAWASKA...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 45 MILES AN HOUR...
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...
    DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...5 TO 10 STRIKES PER MINUTE...

IF THREATENING SKIES APPROACH YOUR AREA...TAKE COVER IN A SHELTER OR
BUILDING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

REPORT WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU.

LAT...LON 4732 6930 4692 6910 4741 6774 4770 6809

NOUHAN

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