Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
238 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION
SUPPORTS CONTINUED POPS THIS EVENING. GULF MOISTURE IS CUT OFF AND
BELIEVE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED.
ALSO...FARTHER DRYING SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED BEHIND A LEAD H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE
BECAUSE OF STRONG SHEAR AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH H85 WIND
NEAR 40 KNOTS AND H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -17. THE MAIN THREAT IS
PROBABLY HAIL BECAUSE EXPECT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. EXPECT LESS
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF DIURNAL COOLING AND BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION.

THE MODELS KEEP THE FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED WITH WEAK H85 COLD ADVECTION DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PLAN TO USE THE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE MAV POPS.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED DURING MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND RIDGING SOUTH AND
WEST. HOWEVER...THE GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS
SW 10-20 KT BUT WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS 2500-4000 FT AT TIMES. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS 01Z-04Z MONDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH WEST WINDS 4-8 KT.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 800 PM THIS EVENING
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 800 PM THIS EVENING
&&

05/05/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
405 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-150805-
AIKEN SC-BAMBERG SC-BARNWELL SC-BURKE GA-CALHOUN SC-CHESTERFIELD SC-
CLARENDON SC-COLUMBIA GA-EDGEFIELD SC-FAIRFIELD SC-KERSHAW SC-
LANCASTER SC-LEE SC-LEXINGTON SC-LINCOLN GA-MCCORMICK SC-MCDUFFIE GA-
NEWBERRY SC-ORANGEBURG SC-RICHLAND SC-RICHMOND GA-SALUDA SC-
SUMTER SC-
405 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE...WITH SMALL HAIL...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ALL BEING POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS MORNING.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
951 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     HAIL             4 SE ORANGEBURG         33.45N 80.82W
05/14/2006  E0.75 INCH       ORANGEBURG         SC   PUBLIC

            E-Z SHOP ON HIGHWAY 178 JUST SOUTHEAST OF ORANGEBURG
            REPORTED PENNY-SIZE HAIL

&&

LINTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1156 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

SCZ020-026-027-141645-

LEXINGTON-NEWBERRY-SALUDA-
1156 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NEWBERRY COUNTY...LEXINGTON
COUNTY AND SALUDA COUNTY THROUGH 1245 PM EDT...

AT NOON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA NEAR THE WESTERN SHORE OF
LAKE MURRAY. MOVEMENT WAS EASTWARD NEAR 40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE MURRAY AREA...INCLUDING
LEXINGTON AND IRMO THROUGH 100 PM.

IF YOU ARE IN THIS AREA...YOU SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER.

RJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             HEATH SPRINGS           34.59N 80.67W
05/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       LANCASTER          SC   PUBLIC

            STORE ON MAIN STREET IN HEATH SPRINGS REPORTED HAIL THE
            SIZE OF QUARTERS.

&&

LINTON