Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA/EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN THAT AREA. AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD BE
STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA...STRONG DIVERGENCE EXPECTED. AIRMASS BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...WITH SURFACE BASED LI AROUND -8.
AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA AREA. 800-850MB WIND
HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 KT AS SEEN ON KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE. SUPER
CELLS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SR HELICITY VALUES TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAIL ALSO A MAJOR CONCERN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

RAPID CLEARING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...CLOSE TO 00Z...SHOULD BE
CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT...QUITE AN AIRMASS CHANGE SO EXPECT DEW POINTS
TO BE FALLING INTO THE 30S BY DAYBREAK. COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY
BUT STRONG DOWNSLOPE...SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST ABOVE LOCAL
CONSENSUS. WINDS POSSIBLY STAYING UP TUESDAY NIGHT A BIT IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO WIDESPREAD 30S NOT EXPECTED. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AS AIRMASS MODERATES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS DEEP SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ECMWF LOOKS MORE LIKE
YESTERDAYS GFS MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS MAY STILL BE TOO FAST
THOUGH. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...DRY REST OF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 2100 UTC AND 0000 UTC THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA. POST FRONTAL
WINDS WILL BE NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS AND SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT
BY 0300 UTC. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MORNING AND REMAIN W
TO NW AT AROUND 10 KTS. A FEW CU WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
519 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-
040930-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
519 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA..

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE...BUT WHAT DOES
DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE.

ALSO, EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS...ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
457 PM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             8 SE WHITMIRE           34.42N 81.52W
04/03/2006  E1.00 INCH       NEWBERRY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEWBERRY COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR
            MAYBINTON AND BRAZELMANS BRIDGE ROADS.

&&

KILMER