Lake Wind Advisory 2, NWS Columbia, SC

Burke County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Aiken County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Sumter County, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
258 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
REGION EARLIER TODAY...HAVE PUSHED TO THE NE. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE
TO AN UPPER IMPULSE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER ENERGY
TO OUR WEST...TO ROLL THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN FA BY MIDNIGHT
OR SO. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND PASS OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. MODELS INDICATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LOW TO OUR NE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST...PROVIDING BREEZY
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN WINDS...IT
APPEARS THAT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 25%...AND FUEL MOISTURES WILL BE HIGH DUE TO RAINFALL
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. UPPER HEIGHT
RISES AND SW UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION AS UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NOAM. MODELS INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. UPPER
ENERGY TO SHIFT TO THE NE...WHILE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION
IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW...ENDING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL AC/AS CIG WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT CU AROUND
2000-4000 FT. CU DECK WILL BECOME BROKEN BY 20Z AS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
AL/GA WILL HELP DEVELOP A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LIFR IN STRONG
STORMS WITH MVFR TO IFR ELSEWHERE. FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS BEHIND IT BY 04Z SATURDAY. SCT CU DECK AROUND 5000 FT ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 8PM SATURDAY.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 8PM SATURDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1027 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-
141030-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
1027 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA THIS EVENING. A LINE OF VERY
FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS
STRONG WINDS IN THE UPPER-LEVELS AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP
CAUSE A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...STRONG NW WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES MAY BE
NEEDED ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BC

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