Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID DAY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS AT ALL
TAF SITES TO LOWER MVFR DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE
STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 338 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006/

SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. UNTIL THEN WE WILL BE UNDER A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR THE THREAT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY TO
LOWER THE CHANCES.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OUR FIRST CONCERN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INITIALLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
AND THE COUNTIES TO THE EAST AND THEN ACROSS MOST ALL OF OUR CWA
THROUGH EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS US. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING A FAIRLY ACTIVE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS ALREADY PRODUCE DAMAGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM WAYNE
COUNTY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.

THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LOOKING AT SHORT WAVES IN
THE NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW COUPLED WITH THE PROJECTED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT FIELDS AT 300 AND 250 MILLIBARS IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 1.75
INCHES THERE IS ALSO THE WORRY ABOUT LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN. WITH
SOME AREAS ALREADY GETTING BIG AMOUNTS RECENTLY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE QUIETEST PERIOD AS WE LOSE DIURNAL
HEATING. WE WILL KEEP POPS DOWN TO AROUND 20.

THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR MONDAY IS LOWER AT THIS TIME AS THERE ARE
SOME IMPORTANT MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE FORECAST AXIS OF THE UPPER
RIDGE IS FARTHER EAST ON THE GFS THAN THE WRF. IF THE GFS VERIFIES
THEN MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO COUNTIES EASTWARD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THOUGH WE ARE
COMPELLED TO RETAIN AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH
THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL IN A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS CONSIDERING THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVER US WE
BELIEVE THAT LOWER POPS ARE IN ORDER. WE WILL MAKE THEN 20 OR LESS
FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ004>008 UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-085 UNTIL 10
     PM SATURDAY.
MARINE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LEZ020 UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
         SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LOZ042>045-062>065 UNTIL 10 PM
         SATURDAY.
         SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SLZ022 UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-300815-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THEY
WOULD LARGELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH
ANY STORM CAPABALE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-300815-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
417 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

NYZ001>003-292330-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
417 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

A LINE OF STRONG STORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS...IMPACTING NIAGARA...ORLEANS...AND MONROE
COUNTIES. THE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SHORELINE NEAR 5 PM...AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 6 PM.  THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.

ZAFF