Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
FZUS71 KBUF 301851
MWSBUF

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
246 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

LEZ020-040-041-061-301945-
/O.CON.KBUF.MA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-060630T1945Z/
246 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR 
LAKE ERIE FROM BUFFALO HARBOR TO RIPLEY...

AT 235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
LINE OF VERY DANGEROUS STORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM GRAND ISLAND TO 
DUNNVILLE ON THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 35 KT.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
  STURGEON POINT BY 255 PM EDT.
  SILVER CREEK BY 305 PM EDT.
  DUNKIRK BY 310 PM EDT.
  BARCELONA BY 320 PM EDT.

THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.  THEY HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS. ALL 
BOATERS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT OR HEAD 
TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY. 

LAT...LON 4324 7859 4285 8007 4203 7943 4241 7797

$$
 
NIZIOL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.UPDATE...

WELL...THE LESSON TODAY IS DONT GO BELOW IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE
THIN LINE OF CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE UPDATE BELOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE IS EXPANDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A GENERALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...BUT
DO EXPECT SOME REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL.
ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR NEIGHBORS UP NORTH JUST ISSUED A
WARNING...SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. NEW FORECASTS OUT AS
WELL AS A NOWCAST.  THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
ERIE COUNTY STILL LOOK DRY WITH GOOD LAKE SHADOWING NOW WELL
APPARENT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006/

UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...FROM ABOUT TORONTO NORTHWEST. SOUTH OF THIS
LINE DO NOT EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT AND WILL REMOVE FROM FORECAST.
THIS INCLUDES ERIE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AREAS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE GENESEE
VALLEY...FINGER LAKES...AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WILL STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BASED OFF OF CAPE AND LI INDICES AS
WELL AS OTHER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS. HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE A
RELATIVELY COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD...ABOUT -17C AT 500MB...AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOWER...NOW AT 9000FT. WITH
THIS IN MIND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. A
LOOK AT THE 00Z NCAR WRF-ARW 4KM MODEL ONLINE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN PETERS OUT CURRENT ACTIVITY
IN ONTARIO. THIS MODEL HANDLED YESTERDAYS CONVECTION QUITE WELL. GRIDS
OUT TO PUBLIC/WEB AND ZFP OUT IN A FEW.

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE HEADED FOR THE AREA, SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED
GUIDANCE AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TODAY, BUT WE HAVE BROUGHT
THEM IN DURING THE MORNING PER THE WRF MODEL. BOTH THE NAM AND WRF
SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE EVENING, AND WE HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.
SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY, BUT THEN THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN
LATE IN THE DAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WEST AND LIKELY EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SHOWS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, SO DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBILITY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WEAK SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPEED ACROSS THE OUR REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW MONDAY.
A SECONDARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
FRONTAL PASSAGES IT WILL BE RAIN FREE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
SO DONT LET THE FORECAST SPOIL YOUR HOLIDAY PLANS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...CLOSE TO 80 FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THE RESULT.

AVIATION...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING VFR CLOUDS INTO THE AREA TODAY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY TO MVFR. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT, BUT
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...ZAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
304 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-010715-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
304 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-010715-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
304 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF