Snow Advisory 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 142038
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
338 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...

.A COLD WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE BANDS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE 
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY OVER OSWEGO COUNTY.

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

NYZ006-150445-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.060315T0500Z-060316T1100Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
338 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6 TO 12
INCH RANGE...VERY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE EXPERIENCED ON THE TUG HILL.

STRONG WEST WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LOCALIZED 
WHITEOUTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...CREATING DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ007-008-150445-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.060315T0500Z-060315T1700Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
338 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE TUG
HILL AREA OF SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. THE LAKE SNOWS
WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OSWEGO COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH
RANGE...VERY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG WEST WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LOCALIZED 
WHITEOUTS CAN SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...CREATING DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ019-020-085-150445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SN.Y.0002.060315T0300Z-060315T1700Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
338 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
12 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 
12 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ERIE...
CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE 
EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...VERY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG WEST WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LOCALIZED 
WHITEOUTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...CREATING DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

UNPLOWED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ALLOW
EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO
OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

TMA

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 150210
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BRING US BACK TO REALITY...

.A COLD WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE BANDS
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY OVER OSWEGO COUNTY.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

NYZ006-151015-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.060315T0500Z-060316T1100Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
910 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 6 TO 12 INCH RANGE...VERY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE EXPERIENCED ON THE TUG
HILL.

STRONG WEST WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER
40 MPH WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
LOCALIZED WHITEOUTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...CREATING DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID
CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ007-008-151015-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.060315T0500Z-060315T1700Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
910 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE
TUG HILL AREA OF SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. THE LAKE
SNOWS WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OSWEGO COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH
RANGE...VERY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG WEST WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER
40 MPH WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
LOCALIZED WHITEOUTS CAN SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...CREATING
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID
CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ019-020-085-151015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SN.Y.0002.060315T0300Z-060315T1700Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
910 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY. 

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN ERIE... CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD 
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...VERY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG WEST WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER
40 MPH WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
LOCALIZED WHITEOUTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES...CREATING DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

UNPLOWED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ALLOW
EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO
OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

SAGE

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 150830
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE...

.A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WHILE THE LAKE
BANDS OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD WEAKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE LAKE
SNOWS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY OVER OSWEGO COUNTY.

WITHIN THE LAKE SNOW BANDS...THE SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

NYZ006-151630-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-060316T1100Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
330 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA INTO TONIGHT. AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE
THE LAKE SNOWS DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

STRONG WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND DANGEROUS
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION...BE PREPARED FOR
RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ007-008-151630-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-060315T1700Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
330 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...AFFECTING MAINLY
THE TUG HILL AREA OF SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. IN
THIS AREA...UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
BEFORE THE SNOWS DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.

STRONG WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND DANGEROUS
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION...BE PREPARED FOR
RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ019-020-085-151630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SN.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-060315T1700Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
330 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY.

MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS MORNING...
PRODUCING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE DIMINISHING
BY AFTERNOON.

STRONG WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND DANGEROUS
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

UNPLOWED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING...
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES.

$$

JJR

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 151457
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
957 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...

.A COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 

WHILE THE LAKE BANDS FROM LAKE ERIE SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...THE LAKE SNOWS OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER OSWEGO
COUNTY.

WITHIN THE LAKE SNOW BANDS...THE SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.

NYZ007-008-151600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-060315T1700Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
957 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

THE STEERING WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
AND THIS WILL KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS SOUTH OF JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

$$

NYZ006-152300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-060316T1100Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
957 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

WELL ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT HAS BEEN FOUND OVER THE
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED
DURING THE COURSE OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE MORE
MULTIBAND AND CELLULAR IN NATURE...BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

STRONG WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND DANGEROUS
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.

IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION...BE PREPARED FOR
RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ019-020-085-151700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SN.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-060315T1700Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
957 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS
WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

STRONG WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND DANGEROUS
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.

IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING...ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE
SOURCE OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INFORMATION FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1205 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

.UPDATE...

AFTER MUCH SCRUTINY AND DEBATE HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE TUG HILL REGION. THE GFS LOOKS MUCH
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN THE HANDLING OF THE H8 TEMPS...ALTHOUGH
ITS QPF IS HALF THAT OF THE ETA12. WILL GO BTWEEN THE MODELS ON
THE QPF...WITH H8 TEMPS ACCEPTED FROM THE RELIABLE GFS.

THE WARNING WILL RUN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST TWO
PERIODS OF THE WARNING. THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL HELP TO SUBSTANTIATE THE WARNING.

TO THE SOUTH OF BUFFALO...A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR
SRN ERIE/CHAUT/CATT COUNTIES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THYE FIRST HALF
OF WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS DEEP OVER LK ERIE
AND DELTA TS ARE EXPECETD TO BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE DURING THE
COURSE OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA WILL
BE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT AND 1 TO 2 INCHES
WEDNESDAY.

STATEMENT TO HIT THE STREET SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1023 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006/

UPDATE...

NOT AN EASY FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS COLD AIR OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT AND DEEPEN OVER LKS ERIE AND
ONTARIO. INITIAL SCRATCH THE SURFACE EXAMINATION OF THE DEEPENING
COLD AIR POINTS TOWARDS A POSIBLE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW EVENT EAST
OF LK ONTARIO...BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF FLYS IN THE OINTMENT.

TO START WITH...THE NEW NAM IS WARMER THAN THE 06Z GFS. THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE LKS WILL BE MARGINAL WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE
VICINTY OF -10 TO -12. AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE LKS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S...WOULD LIKE TO SEE H8 TEMPS OF AT LEAST -12C.

THIS BEING SAID...VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM KING CITY AND
EXETER CANADIAN DOPPLERS ARE SHOWING SOME LK EFFECT ALREADY
OCCURRING OFF OF LKS MICHIGAN AND HURON. THE SNOWS OVER WRN NEW
YORK THIS MORNING ARE DEFINITELY SYNOPTIC IN NATURE AS A BAND OF
STRONG PVA IS ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP WRN QUEBEC LOW. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND GIVE WAY TO WEAK CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY.

THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LK EFFECT OFF
EITHER LK ERIE OR ONTARIO UNTIL DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE 06Z GFS IS
LEANING TOWARDS IT BEING COLD ENOUGH BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN THE CURRENT LK EFFECT ACTIVITY
MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS COUPLED WITH THE
LATE SEASON DIURNAL PROBLEMS.

BY MID MARCH...THE STRENGTH OF THE SUN BREAKS UP ORGANIZED LK
EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND MAKES THEM VERY CELLULAR. I HAVE SEEN MANY
OCCASIONS THOUGH WHERE A WELL ORGANZIED BAND BEFORE DAYBREAK CAN
GENERALLY SURVIVE THROUGH THE DAYTIME....BUT IN A MORE WEAKENED
STATE. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE LAKE EFFECT IS NOT WELL
ORGANZIED BY DAYBREAK...IT WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME DOING
SO DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF THE DIURNAL EFFECTS.

WE ARE DISCUSSING THE NEED FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE
TUG HILL AREA AND ESP OSWEGO COUNTY...BUT TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
TO GO WITH A WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO EXAMINE ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE LATE THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY BEFORE GOING THAT FAR.

BESIDES THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...COLD ADVECTION WITH 50KT WINDS
AROUND 3-4K WILL PROLONG THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY. WILL EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT  AS A RESULT.

RSH

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 325 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

COLD FRONT HAS NOW MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH COLDER
AIR AND STRONG WSW WINDS PREVAILING. SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. CAA
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL
SNOW BY AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN/HEADLINES IN THIS PACKAGE. FIRST ARE THE
WINDS. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO AROUND 40 MPH THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO 50-55 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHILE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE IS NOT EXPECTED THE SATURATED GROUND WILL
PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED UPROOTED TREES. THE WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LEFT AS IS...THOUGH THE NEXT SHIFT
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THEM PAST THE EVENING HOURS.

HYDROWISE...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR CAZENOVIA CREEK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE CREEK HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 2 FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE
WITH NO FURTHER RISES EXPECTED. TO THE EAST...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CONTINED FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. WITH THE STEADIER
RAINS JUST ENDING...CREEKS WILL CONTINUING RISING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

FINALLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION AS
COLD AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. MARCH SUNSHINE AND TOO
MUCH SHEAR MAY HOLD OFF THE ONSET OF WELL DEFINED LAKE SNOWS UNTIL
TONIGHT. 850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -15C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STILL
NOT SURE THE ROLE THE REALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PLAY IN HOLDING
DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW AND
KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO MONITORED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT SLIDING A LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PENNSYLVANIA LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT... SO
HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS FRIDAY BEGINS A WEAK CLIPPER WILL PASS TO
OUR SOUTH. HPC POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE LOW WILL PASS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE OF ANY CONSEQUENCE.
HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS SINCE VERY COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES SHOULD HELP GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS.
WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ABOVE HPC GUIDANCE...FOR THE SAME
REASON. MARITIMES LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST...ALLOWING A SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA.

AVIATION...

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND LAST NIGHTS FRONT WILL
BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES INTO TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WORKS INTO THE AREA...AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT OCNL IFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LAKE SNOWS GET ORGANIZED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE STRONG
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO LOWER VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS AT TIMES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER.

MARINE...

EXPECT GALES FORCE WINDS TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ007-008 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085 UNTIL 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NYZ006>008 FROM MIDNIGHT
     WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY.
     SNOW ADVISORY FOR NYZ019-020-085 FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO NOON
     WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065 UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.

&&

UPDATE...RSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
436 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-150945-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
436 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD BRING DOWN TREE
LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-150945-
OSWEGO-
436 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD BRING DOWN TREE
LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION...LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE LAKE SNOWS TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-150945-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
436 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD BRING DOWN TREE
LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAY AND LAST
NIGHTS RAIN AS WELL AS RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL CAUSE AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS TO RISE AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME STREAMS TO
OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS TODAY.

AS COLD AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION...LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE LAKE SNOWS TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-150945-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
436 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-150945-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
436 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-150945-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
436 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF