Lake Effect Snow Advisory 17, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
358 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER BOUT OF WET WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
DAY...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THE STEADIER RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WRAPPING IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TO KEEP THE POPS HIGH. THE MAIN FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
INCREASING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THEREFORE...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREAS AND TIMES OUTLINED BELOW. MODEL INDICATE A BAND OF HIGH
WINDS BRINGING THE COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH WIND SPEEDS
NEARING 70 MPH JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THESE
WINDS WILL TRANSLATE DOWNWARD WITH THE UNSTABLE MIXING AS THE COLD
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE OTHER BIG CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF BOTH LAKES AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN MODELS AS NAM SHOWS 850MB TEMPS
ONLY AROUND -3 TO -4C BUT GFS IS QUITE A BIT COLDER AT -8C. A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF LAKE SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CITIES OF BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AND IT APPEARS THAT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
EAST OF BOTH THE LAKES...WITH THE ADDITIONAL COMPONENT OF THE
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WELL
EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GET STARTED SOONER
OFF LAKE ERIE ALONG THE RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE NYS THRUWAY...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. THE LAKE ERIE SNOW WILL
LIKELY END BY SUNDAY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO
WARM WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE. THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER INTENSE ON SUNDAY AND MAY DROP WELL OVER A FOOT
OF SNOW ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE LONG WEST TO EAST FETCH
ALONG THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE AMPLE TIME FOR THE
LOWEST LAYERS OF THE AIRMASS TO MOISTEN AND ACCUMULATE ABUNDANT
THERMAL ENERGY...THUS THUNDERSNOW IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY AND VERY
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES MAY DEVELOP.

THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES RIDGE. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING PLUS 10C TO 12C DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A RETURN
TO COLDER CONDITIONS SETTING UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PUSHES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS
IT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. LOW LEVELS MAY
BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO AT LEAST 40 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND THIS
DEEPENING LOW. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 50-55KTS
HOWEVER PLAN ON HOLDING ON TO HIGH END GALE WARNINGS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ010-019-085 FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO
     5 PM SUNDAY.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085 FROM 11
     PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085 FROM 11 PM
     SATURDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NYZ004>008-013-014 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 5
     PM SUNDAY.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NYZ006>008 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM
     SUNDAY.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NYZ021 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM
     SUNDAY.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR NYZ021 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR LEZ020-040-041 FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM
         SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
         8 PM SATURDAY.
         GALE WARNING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065 FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 10
         PM SUNDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOZ042>045 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 11
         PM SATURDAY.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SLZ022-024 FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM
         MONDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

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