Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 010346
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1046 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...TWO ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE THIS EVENING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY... THEN
PASS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH...AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NYZ001-002-010-011-011200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0005.061201T1200Z-061202T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
1046 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...GENESEE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE AND ORLEANS.

* FROM 7 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* TWO ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE FIRST
  OVERNIGHT...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MORNING
  ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THE SECOND BATCH OF
  RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK
  EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND
  BATCH OF RAIN ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DROP ANOTHER INCH OF
  RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THESE TWO EVENTS COMBINED MAY
  BRING RAPID RISES TO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH THE
  POSSIBILITY OF URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* DUE TO THE OCTOBER SNOWSTORM...MANY AREA STREAMS HAVE 
  EXCESSIVE TREE DEBRIS WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH RAIN FROM THIS 
  NEXT SYSTEM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS DEBRIS MAY CLOG UP...
  CAUSING LOCAL FLOODING IN PLACES THAT ARE NOT NORMALLY 
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

$$

NYZ003>008-012>014-019>021-085-011200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0005.061201T1200Z-061202T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1046 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO...
  SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* FROM 7 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* TWO ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE FIRST
  TONIGHT... WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MORNING
  ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THE SECOND BATCH OF
  RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK
  EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND
  BATCH OF RAIN ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DROP ANOTHER INCH OF
  RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THESE TWO EVENTS COMBINED MAY
  BRING RAPID RISES TO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH THE
  POSSIBILITY OF URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

$$

SAGE

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 010944
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
444 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

NYZ001-002-010-011-011745-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0005.061201T1200Z-061202T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
444 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...GENESEE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE AND ORLEANS.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* A STEADY MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OBSERVER
  REPORTS AND RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FROM ONE
  QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN DURING
  THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE
  FLOOD PROBLEMS...IT WILL ACT TO SATURATE GROUND CONDITIONS...IN
  ADVANCE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
  DAY TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY BRING RAPID RISES TO
  AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF URBAN
  FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* DUE TO THE OCTOBER SNOWSTORM...MANY AREA STREAMS HAVE 
  EXCESSIVE TREE DEBRIS WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH RAIN FROM THIS 
  NEXT SYSTEM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS DEBRIS MAY CLOG UP... 
  CAUSING LOCAL FLOODING IN PLACES THAT ARE NOT NORMALLY 
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

$$

NYZ003>008-012>014-019>021-085-011745-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0005.061201T1200Z-061202T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
444 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO...
  SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* A STEADY MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OBSERVER
  REPORTS AND RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FROM ONE
  QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN DURING
  THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL NOT CAUSE
  FLOOD PROBLEMS...IT WILL ACT TO SATURATE GROUND CONDITIONS...IN
  ADVANCE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
  DAY TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY BRING RAPID RISES TO
  AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF URBAN
  FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

$$

TMA

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 011639
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1139 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

NYZ001-002-010-011-012300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-061202T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
1139 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...GENESEE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE AND ORLEANS.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
  OF THE AFTERNOON. OBSERVER REPORTS INDICATE THAT AN INCH TO AN
  INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
  ALTHOUGH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IS NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOOD
  PROBLEMS...IT HAS ACTED TO SATURATE GROUND CONDITIONS...IN
  ADVANCE OF MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY BRING RAPID RISES TO
  AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF URBAN
  FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* DUE TO THE OCTOBER SNOWSTORM...MANY AREA STREAMS HAVE 
  EXCESSIVE TREE DEBRIS WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH RAIN FROM THIS 
  NEXT SYSTEM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS DEBRIS MAY CLOG UP... 
  CAUSING LOCAL FLOODING IN PLACES THAT ARE NOT NORMALLY 
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

$$

NYZ003>008-012>014-019>021-085-012300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-061202T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1139 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...ONTARIO...
  SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON. OBSERVER REPORTS AND RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT AN
  INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE YESTERDAY
  AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IS NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
  FLOOD PROBLEMS...IT HAS ACTED TO SATURATE GROUND CONDITIONS...IN
  ADVANCE OF MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF IS
  POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY BRING RAPID RISES TO
  AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF URBAN
  FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

$$

JJR

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 012123
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
423 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-012230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-061202T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
423 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS ENDED. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND PONDING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
LARGER CREEKS WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THEY WILL STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AT THIS TIME CAZENOVIA CREEK IS
THE ONLY LARGER STREAM EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS
EVENING.

$$

NYZ006>008-020500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-061202T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
423 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO.

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT

* RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
  EVENING. MORE THAN 2 INCHES HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED SINCE
  YESTERDAY. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND PONDING IS EXPECTED WITH A
  POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAMS GOING QUICKLY OUT OF THEIR THEIR BANKS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

$$

SAGE

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 020303
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...

NYZ006>008-020415-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-061202T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1003 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. SOME AREAS OF OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
PICKED UP WELL OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE
WAS PLENTY OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND PONDING. SIGNIFICANT
RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE BLACK RIVER BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

$$

SAGE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF BENIGN AND WARM LATE NOVEMBER WEATHER...BIG
CHANGES WILL BE COMING DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS COURTESY OF AN
EXTREMELY COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CROSSING OUR REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING...THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY A SEICHE ON
LAKE ERIE...AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOWFALL TO BOOT.

IN TERMS OF THE LARGE-SCALE DETAILS...THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN ITS GENESIS PHASE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING...CAUSING THE
LATTER FEATURE TO STALL OUT ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL THEN RIPPLE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
LAKES FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND
CROSSING THE AREA SOUTH OF A KBUF-KROC-KART AXIS...BEFORE DEPARTING
DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AS IT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
IMPRESSIVE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ANYTHING FROM 1.5-2 /WRF/ TO 2-3
/GFS/ INCHES OF RAINFALL. 24-HOUR FFG IS GENERALLY ABOVE THIS AND
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY RECENTLY...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THIS IS A
LOT OF RAIN TO HANDLE CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE LACK OF
VEGETATION THAT COULD SUFFICIENTLY MITIGATE ANY RUNOFF.
FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST RFC GUIDANCE ALREADY BRINGS SEVERAL OF OUR
WATERWAYS TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THATS
ONLY WITH 1.5-2.0 OF RAINFALL. CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS THAN THIS...AND ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS...WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR FRIDAY
AND PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE GENERAL HEAVY RAINFALL...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOMORROW AS THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA
AND AREAS SOUTH OF KBUF-KROC-KART GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. NOT ONLY COULD ANY STORMS PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH COULD ADD TO THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND INTERIOR OF THE FINGER LAKES...BUT SOME COULD ALSO VERY WELL BE
SEVERE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE
OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THAN PASSES ACROSS US DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THE WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY DURING FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SUDDENLY TURN TO
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS THAT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT SHIFT IN DIRECTION
TO TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST ALONG WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...AND A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. ALL OF THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST
KEEPING THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WELL LET THE MID SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL CALL ON ANY
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WITH THE HIGH WINDS STILL A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS
IN THE FUTURE.

THIS SUDDEN SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
PRONOUNCED INCREASE AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEEDS WILL LIKELY ALSO
CREATE A PRONOUNCED SEICHE EVENT ON THE EAST END OF BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS
REASONS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE HOISTED FOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST END OF BOTH LAKES.

THE PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER IN
PRECIP TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT BY THE TIME THIS OCCURS WE ONLY EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE OWING TO PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AND
THE RAPID WEST-EAST DIMINISHING TREND IN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. THUS...NOT MUCH OF THE WAY IN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
DURING SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LARGELY SCATTERED EVEN
THEN DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH
REGION...AS WELL AS INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY 4-6 KFT BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

OF PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND IS THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD.  00Z...06Z...AND NOW 12Z NCEP WRF
RUN CONTINUES TO CREATE A NICE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG LAKE ERIE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE LATEST RUN HINTS AT LAKE SNOW BAND FORMATION
INITIALLY OVER KBUF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE BAND
THIS FAR OUT OF COURSE IS IN QUESTION...BUT THE IDEA OF ITS
FORMATION LOOKS BETTER AND BETTER.  A SIMILAR SCENARIO WOULD PLAY
OUT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.  THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE EVENT
AS THE LIFT IS ISOLATED TO THE LOWEST 8000FT...BUT THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE ABOVE JUST ABOVE -10C FOR SOME SNOW GROWTH AND
THEREFORE ACCUMULATING SNOW.  FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE MAIN NEWS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE COLD AIR WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5-10 BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...EXPECT A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
WEST.  SOME SHORT-WAVES OF NOTE WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH...A
SHORT-WAVE SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH NY ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.  ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE HOWEVER IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN A BREAK AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY THE LAST AND COLDEST SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECT OFF-ON SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE COLDEST DAY FORECAST TO BE ON THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A COOL -18C.

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO
LIFR IN MANY AREAS WITH IFR VISIBILITY IN MODERATE RAIN. LOW CLOUDS
AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE FRONT
STALLS OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND A LOW CENTER MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.  A DEEPENING LOW CENTER MOVING NORTH
ALONG FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY ISSUED LATE TONIGHT.  AFTER THE LOW PASSES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE FOR AWHILE THEN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085 FROM 7 AM
     FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085 FROM 1 PM
     FRIDAY TO 1 AM SATURDAY.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ010-019-085 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4
     AM SATURDAY.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ007 FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM
     SATURDAY.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APB
MARINE...APB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
357 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

NYZ001-010-019-085-010930-
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
357 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH WIND WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 45 TO
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 2
OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN MAY BRING FLOODING. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. A RAPID RISE IN LAKE
ERIE COMBINED WITH HIGH WAVES MAY BRING FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ002>006-008-011>014-020-021-010930-
ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
357 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH WIND WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTWEST WINDS 45 TO
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 2
OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN MAY BRING FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-010930-
JEFFERSON-
357 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH WIND WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTWEST WINDS 45 TO
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 2
OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN MAY BRING FLOODING. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A RISE IN LAKE ONTARIO COMBINED WITH HIGH WAVES MAY
BRING FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-010930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
357 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG GALES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF