Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

.NEAR SHORT TERM...
SVR TSTM WATCH #559 IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM FOR ENTIRE FA.

AS PRVS DISC INDICATED...SB CAPES ALRDY 800-1400J/KG ACRS PTNS OF FA
WITH GRTST CAPES CT RVR VLY E AS PWATS/DEEP MOIST FM YDYS SYSTEM STL
EXISTANT AND ANTHR MAX APPRCHG ST LWRNC VLY WHERE DEEP TROF APPRCHG
AND FALLING HGTS TAKING PLACE. LWR CAPES AND SOME CAP ACRS ADRNDKS
BUT ITS TRYING TO GET GOING BUT SHEAR IS MOD-STG ACRS FA WITH
40-50KTS AT H5 AND NOT ALLOWING MUCH VERTICAL DVLPMNT. FA UNDER
H3 120 JET BUT AS ROA/EVE APPCHS FA SHLD BE MORE FVRBL IN RRQ AS
WELL AS STG S/W TROF IN SW NY/WRN PA LIFTING ENE WHICH IS MY MAIN
CONCERN FOR NY ROA/EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LVL TROF...S/W AND SFC FNT THAT HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FOR THE
PAST 2+ DAYS SLOWLY MVS ACRS FA TNGT TO CONT -SHRA THREAT AFT MAX
HEATING AS FALLING HGTS CONT.

ON FRI...SFC FNT SHLD BE IN CT RVR VLY BUT STL STG...COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH ANTHR STG S/W DROPPING ACRS FA DRG AFTN HEATING WHICH SHLD
BRG ABT ENUF INSTABILITY FOR -SHRA/-TSRA WITH GRTST -TSRA THREAT
ALG/E OF GRN MTNS AND ISOLD SVR THREAT THERE AS WELL.

FRI NGT...SHRA THREAT SHLD ABATE DRG EVENING WITH GRDL CLRG DRG
OVRNGT AS WE END ANTHR VRY WET MONTH AND START A NEW MONTH.

BY SAT(JULY 1ST)...FLOW APPRCHG ZONAL BUT STL SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC WITH
WEAK RDG SFC-H7 AND SOME DRIER AIR FOR A DECENT...SUNNY DAY ACRS
MUCH OF FA BUT FAST FLOW AND SHALLOW AMPLITUDE OF RDG WL ALLOW SOME
MID-LVL ENERGY TO H8 WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION TO RACE TOWARD WRN FA.
ATTM...GOING OPTIMISTIC AND KEEPING PCPN AWAY FM FA DRG DAYLGT HOURS.

SAT NGT...FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH S/W ENERGY AND SFC LOW TRACKING
WITHIN FLOW ACRS ONTARIO DELIVERING SFC/H8 WRM FNT AND HEALTHY
WAA/MOIST ADVECTION AS H8 TMPS CLIMB FM +10 TO +16C SAT NGT AND
PWATS INCREASE FM LESS THAN INCH TO OVER 1.5 INCHES.

THEREFORE...FEEL BEST THREAT FOR WAA/OVERRUNNING -SHRA WL BE ACRS
NRN NY WITH SFC CD FNT ENHANCING CHCS TOWARD DAYBRK AS SFC LOW
APPRCHS AND EVENTUALLY PASSES ACRS QUEBEC SUN.

SUN...BASED ON MULTIPLE GUIDANCE AND HPC PROGS...SFC LOW TRACKS ACRS
QUEBEC SUN WITH ASSOC CD FNT MVG ACRS FA DRG DAY. ONCE AGAIN...GRTST
THREAT ACRS NRN ZONES BUT UNFORTUNATELY EVERYONE HAS A CHC. IVE
UNDERCUT MAX TMPS FM GUIDANCE DUE TO CLDS AND GRDL CAA FOLLOWING
FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA AND GFS SHOWS MEAN MID/UPPER LVL TROF
RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS BY DAYS
5-6. THIS WL ONCE AGAIN RETURN OUR TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED
FCST. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WL BE
SUPPRESSED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/WS
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRNT WL BE DIFFICULT...BUT GIVEN ULVL PATTERN
FEEL CHCS FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE NEEDED IN MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FCST. MONDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH AND MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
AXIS QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
IMPACTS FA. FEEL CRNT GFS IS OVERDONE WITH PRECIP FIELDS...GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE 5H VORT. MAY
JUST MENTION CHC POPS WESTERN ZNS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SFC
FRNT AND MORE LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR FA.
WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WL PROVIDE FCST AREA WITH THE CHCS OF
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TIMING OF FRNTS WL
BE DIFFICULT GIVEN ULVL NW FLW AND STRONG JET STREAM WINDS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 80 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT DROP TO
NEAR 10C BY WEDS AND THURS ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA AND CLOUDS. WL
MENTION TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES DURING FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE COND DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES
DUE TO TS MVG THRU AREA THRU 00Z. WINDS GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG W/ MOD/HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND NEAR VCNTY OF TS.
WINDS NORMALLY DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN S/SW 10 TO 20
KTS...GOING LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 00Z...THEN SHIFTING WNW AFT 12Z
TOMORROW 10 KTS OR LESS...W/ SCT/BKN LOW CLDS...4-5SM -SHRA...FOR
MAINLY VFR/MVFR COND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-300830-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
427 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
SMALL HAIL. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE SATURATED GROUND...RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ON
FRIDAY. INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL
HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ESSENTIALLY
EXIST OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EVENSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-300115-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
153 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND HAIL OF 3/4
INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER. IN ADDITION...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND THEN THE REST OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH MAY BE
CAPABLE OF TOPPLING SHALLOW ROOTED TREES ON SATURATED SOILS.
FURTHER...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF PONDING OF WATER...FLOODED CULVERTS AND WASHED OUT
ROADS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE EXCESSIVE RUN-OFF CREATED BY THE SOILS
INABILITY TO ABSORB RAINFALL.

SLW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
518 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

VTZ001-002-005-016-292215-
GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING...ST. ALBANS
518 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

AT 515 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER SAND BAR STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILTON BY 530 PM...NEAR
BURTON ISLAND STATE PARK BY 540 PM...NEAR GEORGIA CENTER...6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WOODS ISLAND STATE PARK BY 550 PM...NEAR ST. ALBANS BAY
STATE PARK...7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIRFAX BY 600 PM...NEAR NORTH
FAIRFAX...ST. ALBANS BY 610 PM...5 MILES WEST OF FAIRFIELD AND 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHELDON BY 620 PM.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER
HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL APPROACH ONE INCH IN LESS THAN ONE
HOUR.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
523 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

VTZ010-012-292230-
ORANGE-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING...EAST BARNARD...EXIT 1 I89...EXIT 10 I91...EXIT 11 I91...
EXIT 12 I91...EXIT 13 I91...EXIT 14 I91...EXIT 2 I89...NORWICH...
POMFRET...POST MILLS...QUECHEE...QUEECHEE STATE PARK...SHARON...SOUTH
POMFRET...STRAFFORD...THETFORD...THETFORD HILLS STATE PARK...UNION
VILLAGE...WEST HARTFORD...WILDER AND WOODSTOCK
523 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

AT 520 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WOODSTOCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR QUECHEE...POMFRET BY 540 PM...NEAR WEST
HARTFORD BY 550 PM...NEAR SHARON BY 6 PM...STRAFFORD AND THETFORD
HILLS STATE PARK BY 620 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR ALL OF
VERMONT.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER AND TORRENTIAL RAINS
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS THUNDERSTORM.

SLW