Wind Advisory 17, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WWUS74 KBRO 162245
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

...THE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELED...

TXZ251-254>257-162345-
/O.CAN.KBRO.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-061017T0000Z/
KENEDY-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-
COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SARITA...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...
HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
545 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. SOUTH WINDS HAVE DECREASE TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST
NOW...THEREFORE...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. 

$$

58

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...STRONG...DEEP SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
CARRYING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW IS BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA...AND A LLJ IS ALSO EVIDENT FROM RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILE. WITH PWAT AT AROUND 2.5 INCHES AND A VEERING PROFILE WITH
ADEQUATE SHEAR...THERE IS PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS.
THE CWA IS CONSEQUENTLY IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA FOR
TODAY. A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF H5 LIFT WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AS A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO OPENS
UP INTO A WAVE AND MOVES EAST ACROSS TEXAS. THE BEST ENERGY FOR
CONVECTION IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS APPEARS TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER...OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION THEN POISED TO
HEAD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP SOME
POPS GOING A BIT LONGER TODAY THAN GUIDANCE MIGHT OTHERWISE SUGGEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CREEP BACK UP A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY...BUT
WILL SHAVE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF GUIDANCE WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS
AND CLOUDINESS IN THE AREA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT KNOCKS ON THE DOOR OF THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
LATE WEDNESDAY...AND PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A BAND OF
CONVECTION. COULD SEE A REPLAY OF STRONG CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH
OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PUSHBACK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SHOWERS MOVE BACK
NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE GFS IS NOT DROPPING TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM
THE FIRST FRONT...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR ARRIVES
LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING A DAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE INDUCED TO
DECREASE INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

THIS SECOND AIRMASS WILL SLIDE EAST AHEAD OF H5 RIDGING SHIFTING
TOWARD TEXAS FROM UPSTREAM...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP WITH
GULF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE FOLLOW-UP FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH TEXAS AND
THE PANHANDLE AREA WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OF STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS...THOUGH THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER THE MARINE AREAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 756 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006...THE
EVENING SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
WITH A PWAT OF 2.59 INCHES. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO
A STRIPE FROM SARITA TO RIO GRANDE CITY. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
TRYING TO FORM UP TO THE SOUTHWEST. THINK SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS COVERED SO WILL NOT
NEED TO UPDATE.
&&

.MARINE...AT 1 AM BUOY 20 REPORTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 21 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 10 FEET WITH A 9 SECOND PERIOD. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS ON MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE OVER THE MARINE AREAS TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE OCCURRING AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
TEMPORARILY REDUCE CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BECOMING MODERATE TO
STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW            90 79 92 79 92 77 / 30 30 10 05 20 30
BROWNSVILLE        91 78 93 79 94 77 / 30 30 10 05 20 30
FALFURRIAS         94 73 96 75 95 73 / 30 30 10 05 40 30
HARLINGEN          93 78 95 78 95 77 / 30 30 10 05 20 30
HEBBRONVILLE       92 72 94 73 93 74 / 20 20 05 00 30 30
MCALLEN            94 76 98 77 97 76 / 30 30 10 05 20 30
PORT ISABEL        89 80 91 79 91 78 / 30 30 10 05 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY    94 76 97 77 97 76 / 20 20 10 05 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 80 90 80 90 79 / 30 30 10 05 20 30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SCA GMZ150-155-170-175 THROUGH 17/00Z.
&&

54/63

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
505 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

TXZ248>257-171100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
505 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO THE WINDS AND SEAS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR
THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA DUE TO THE WINDS
AND SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE SEAS. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND
AND BOCA CHICA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.