Wind Advisory 16, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
750 PM CDT THU APR 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...WINDY FRIDAY...AS POTENT UPPER TROF INDUCES DEEP SFC
LOW OVR TX BIG BEND TO OK...WHERE SLGT CHC OF SVR TSTMS EXISTS
FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AXIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEALS OF WARM LLVL
JET INTO NRN TX...KEEPING PCPN AT A MINIMUM DURING FROPA SAT 15Z. NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT CONSERVATIVE FCST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO
CWFA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE A LIFETIME OF LESS THAN ONE HOUR...AND HAVE
OPTED TO HANDLE THEM WITH A NOWCAST. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS THE INDICATION
BY BOTH GFS AND ETA MOS GUIDANCE OF STRONG WINDS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
BEGINNING FRIDAY MID-MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING FOR FRIDAY BECOMING INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY...BUT WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE OF
THESE PRODUCTS TO FUTURE SHIFTS. NEXT FORECAST CONCERN APPEARS ON
THE HORIZON FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THAT DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DAY...EVEN THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE MEAGER AT BEST. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A RETURN TO DRY AND
HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST. &&

.MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTS EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SEAS AT 4
FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS AS
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUST TO GALE FORCE OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR STRATO CU CIGS
OVERNIGHT. A SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY WILL
TIGHTEN PGF OVER THE REGION INCREASING WINDS TO 20G28KTS BY LATE AM.
STRONG SE WINDS WILL MIX OUT MVFR CIGS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A LGT
OCNL MDT CHOP LIKELY BELOW 4KFT EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  91  70  90  65 /  05   0  20  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          76  90  71  92  65 /  05   0  20  20   0
HARLINGEN            75  94  71  91  63 /  05   0  20  20   0
MCALLEN              75  95  73  95  65 /  05   0  20  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      74 100  71  93  65 /  05   0  20  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  86  74  88  73 /  05   0  20  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...58
MARINE/AVIATION...55
HMT/MESO...MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
435 AM CDT THU APR 27 2006

TXZ248>257-281045-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
435 AM CDT THU APR 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...A NUMBER OF HAZARDS WILL DEVELOP. STRONG
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ERRATIC AND UNPREDICTABLE WILDFIRE
BEHAVIOR...AND A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. ALSO...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FRIDAY FOR INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST AND DECREASE SATURDAY AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...
BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL HIGH SEAS ABATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.