Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WWUS54 KBRO 032226
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
523 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

TXC489-032233-
/O.EXP.KBRO.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-060703T2230Z/
WILLACY TX-
523 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WILLACY COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 530 PM CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS WEAKENING SLIGHTLY POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL 
RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOCALIZED 
FLOODING IS LIKELY BETWEEN RAYMONDVILLE AND SAN PERLITA.

LAT...LON 2652 9783 2642 9766 2659 9758 2660 9774

$$
GB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
240 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS PERSISTENT 500
MB LOW OVER WEST TEXAS MEANDERING AROUND THE STATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  BOTH THE ETA AND GFS WANT TO DRIFT THIS LOW BACK TO
THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY BACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRO CWA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE LOW FURTHER.  THIS DIFFERENCE IN
POSITIONING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS YIELDS UP A MUCH DRIER GFS RUN IN
COMPARISON TO THE ETA. BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS DRYING THINGS OUT A
BIT TOO FAST AND CONSIDERING THE HIGH PWATS AROUND THE REGION...WILL
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET POPS KEEPING SOME MENTION OF RAIN
CHCS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE RECENT QPF OUTLOOKS FROM HPC CONTINUE TO
PLACE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COASTLINES IN THE MOST FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE
APPEARS THE MOST FAVORABLE.  SO CONSIDERING THESE OUTLOOKS AND THE
CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FFA AT THE
MOMENT.  SINCE THE MET GUIDANCE IS WETTER...THE MET TEMPS ARE A
LITTLE BIT COOLER COMPARITIVELY TO THE MAV NUMBERS. DESPITE
THIS...TEMPERATURE FORECAST GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FROM BOTH
MODELS AND WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THIS OVERALL TREND.  THE
POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE IN THE
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE AS THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERALL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE.  THE GFS KEEPS
THE LOW WANDERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THURSDAY
EVENTUALLY SHEARING OUT THE FEATURE TO THE WEST AS 500 MB RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A WETTER
SCENARIO FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE 500 MB LOW SITUATED FURTHER
SOUTH OF BRO.  DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TWO MODELS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIODS
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOLED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THIS UPPER LOW.  THE CURRENT
MEX TEMP GUIDANCE STAYS PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE INTO THE LONGER
RANGE AND THIS LOOKS OK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  92  80  92  80 /  30  40  40  40  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  80  95  80 /  30  40  40  40  30
HARLINGEN            77  95  78  96  79 /  30  40  40  40  30
MCALLEN              78  97  79  98  79 /  30  40  40  40  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  97  78  99  79 /  30  40  40  40  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  90  80  90  81 /  30  40  40  40  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

FXC EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO/FXC/FXC.HTM

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS/MARINE/AVIATION...60/LERMAN
MESO/FXC...ABBOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

TXZ248>257-041100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
530 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY. TROPICAL DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PRODUCE TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS. ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE BEACHES OF
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS. AND...THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE...AS
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY FLASH FLOODING THAT THEY
OBSERVE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

TOMASELLI