Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
142 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER REGION. S/WV
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS HAS MOVED NE WITH SCT TO LKLY CONVECTION
CONTINUING ACROSS CWA AS MESO BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING
TO INITIATE SHRA/TSRA. WILL MAINTAIN FFA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LOSS OF SFC HEATING. ANOTHER WET DAY
ANTICIPATED WED AS A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER S CTL TX...MOVES
THROUGH CWA PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SFC CONVERGENCE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF CWA...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS FOR SEABREEZE
DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...GWW GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY LIGHT WIND AND SWELL REGIME
PREVAILING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A LIGHT
ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FORCE THE MARINE WINDS BACK TO THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL NOT DO MUCH TO INCREASE THE OVERALL SWELL
ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL TIGHTEN THE PGF ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
IN TURN INCREASE THE SWELL ACTIVITY AFTER SUNDAY. OVERALL NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CWF PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED A BIT TO
REFLECT THE WETTER REGIME ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
LOWER RGV THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE
BRO CWA WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE BRO...HRL AND MFE AREAS
TOMORROW MORNING.  MODEL GUIDANCE AND QPF OUTLOOKS MAINTAIN GOOD
RAIN CHCS FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL MODEL THE
TAF WORDING ACCORDINGLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS ESPECIALLY FOR
TOMORROW MORNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  89  77  88  77  90 /  60  50  50  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          91  74  89  74  91 /  60  50  50  30  30
HARLINGEN            92  74  90  74  93 /  60  50  50  30  30
MCALLEN              92  75  91  75  94 /  60  50  50  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      92  74  91  74  94 /  70  50  50  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  77  88  77  89 /  60  50  50  30  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FFA 248>257 THROUGH 03Z.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

55/60/CAMPBELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
820 AM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

TXZ248>257-131100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
820 AM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPEECE