Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Brownsville, TX

000
WGUS74 KBRO 132241
FFSBRO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
538 PM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006

TXC427-132300-
STARR TX-
538 PM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR 
CENTRAL STARR COUNTY NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN AND NEAR RIO 
GRANDE CITY AND GARCIASVILLE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN 
DECREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...AND HEAVY 
RAINFALL SHOULD EASE BY 6 PM CDT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER 
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 2631 9894 2629 9877 2652 9874 2654 9892

$$

PHILO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
240 PM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING STEADILY THROUGH THE BRO
CWA.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS CLEARED SOUTH OF
BRO WHILE THE DEWPOINTS IN THE BRO...HRL AND MFE AND EDINBURG AREAS
REMAIN NEAR THE 70 DEGREE MARK INDICATING THE ACTUAL FRONT HAS NOT
YET CLEARED THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT HAS INTERACTED WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION INDICATED BY THE 12Z BRO
SOUNDING WHICH HAD A PWAT OF 2.2 INCHES AND A CAPE OF 5356 J/KG TO
PRODUCE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF RW AND ISOLD T-STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. LAPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW HAS USHERED IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
ESTIMATED CAPES ONLY AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
OLD BOUNDARY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND WILL START COMING BACK AS A WARM FRONT BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TO CONTINUE TO FIRE AND THE RETURNING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL LIKELY HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER. MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
SHORT TERM AS BOTH MODELS TRY TO TAP SOME OF THE LEFT OVER ENERGY
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF OF THE PACIFIC MEXICAN COASTLINE AND
ADVECT IT NORTHWARDS AHEAD OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING EAST FROM
THE CA COASTLINE.  THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY IN THE HANDLING OF THE CA CLOSED LOW...BUT THEN BEGIN
TO DIVERGE FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  MEANWHILE...THE
MODELS DIVERGE FROM THE START IN THE HANDLING OF TROPICAL ENERGY
PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE NAM SHOWS THE
STRONGEST SOLUTION BRINGING UP A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS BY EARLY MONDAY.  MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MORE SUBTLE IN DIGGING
OUT A WEAKER 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS COASTLINE EARLIER IN THE
PERIOD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  AM VERY SUSPICIOUS OF THE NAM
SOLUTION AND THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT DISAGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER COASTAL
TROUGH.  DESPITE ALL OF THESE DIFFERENCES...THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
ARE IN PRETTY AGREEMENT FOR POPS SHOWING A VERY RAINY PATTERN
CONTINUING OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
AIRMASS FINALLY DRYING OUT AFTER MONDAY. THE CURRENT KBRO RADAR
TRENDS ALSO FAVOR A WETTER SOLUTION SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BRO AREA CLOSE TO THE OLD BOUNDARY.  ACCORDINGLY...WILL
POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION FOR TONIGHT DUE TO THE
CONTINUED INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH TOMORROW.  AFTER THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES OUT FROM
CALIFORNIA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY
OUT SOMEWHAT AROUND MID WEEK...BUT ANOTHER BROAD 500 MB TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES TOWARDS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL USHER THROUGH A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT FOR NEXT FRIDAY.  ONCE
AGAIN THE GFS IS SHOWING A MAJOR COOLDOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CONSIDERING THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL ON THIS
FROPA...AM SOMEWHAT SCEPTICAL OF BUYING INTO THE FORECAST HIGHS
INDICATED IN THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR NEXT FRIDAY.  SO FOR THE LONG
RANGE WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS IN THE 3 TO 7
DAY RANGE WITH OVERALL TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND SEAS
AT 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST LATE TODAY...WITH BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES
TO FORM. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING ON SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE SOUTH
WINDS RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 6 FEET
OFFSHORE BY SAT WITH MODERATE SEAS PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MVG THROUGH SRN HIDALGO AND
CAMERON COUNTIES WILL PUSH THROUGH CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY IS WEAKENING IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT
CONVECTION. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VIS IN BR AND -RA WILL
PREVAIL BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS/VFR VIS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  85  76  87  77 /  50  80  60  70  50
BROWNSVILLE          76  85  76  88  77 /  50  80  60  70  50
HARLINGEN            75  85  75  88  77 /  50  80  60  70  50
MCALLEN              74  86  74  90  75 /  50  80  60  60  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  86  74  90  75 /  50  60  50  60  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  86  77 /  50  80  60  70  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FFA FOR TXZ248>257 THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION...55
MESO...MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1018 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006

TXZ248>257-141100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1018 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY OFFSHORE.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 5 TO 7 FEET AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
OVER THE NORTHERN LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.