Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1035 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE CONV THROUGH
THE REGION RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS...PRIMARILY HIDALGO COUNTY WHERE FLOODING PROBLEMS
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.  IN THE WAKE OF THE
SQUALL LINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS ARE CONTINUING WHICH IS
CAUSING ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THE EARLIER CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING A LRD TO ALI
LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  THIS
MORNINGS BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS NEAR 2.23 INCHES AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 5346
J/KG. THE ANVIL BLOWOFF FROM THE EARLIER CONV IS COVERING ALL OF THE
BRO CWA AND THIS WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR AFTERNOON HEATING...SO BELIEVE
THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL (DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL) IS FAIRLY LIMITED AT
THE MOMENT.  HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE TIME BEING AND WILL REVISIT THIS ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR POSSIBLE REFINEMENTS. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT
ZFP WORDING...BUT OVERALL FORECAST WORDING IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS
OK AT THE MOMENT.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED NNE WINDS AT 23G28 KTS AND SEAS NEAR 9
FEET. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WILL RAISE
FLAGS THIS MORNING AS NORTH WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPO IFR CIG/VIS IN HEAVIER
PRECIP TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CWA THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING -RA WITH SCT TO NUM EMBEDDED SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SCA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175 THROUGH 12Z MON.
FFA TXZ248>257 THROUGH 7 AM MON.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
500 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2006

TXZ248>257-251100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
500 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM 1
PM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ROADWAY PONDING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY CAN BE EXPECTED GENERALLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM 1 PM TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE AREAS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS NORTHEAST WINDS SHIP SEAS TO 7 TO 9
FEET. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ESPECIALLY DURING LOW TIDES IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA
THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT SEAS AND WINDS
WILL ALWAYS BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. NO
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PHILO