Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 121254
FFSBRO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
751 AM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

TXC247-427-505-121301-
JIM HOGG TX-ZAPATA TX-STARR TX-
751 AM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WESTERN STARR...
ZAPATA AND SOUTHERN JIM HOGG COUNTIES...

AT 751 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE 
OVER WESTERN STARR...ZAPATA AND SOUTHERN JIM HOGG COUNTIES HAVE 
WEAKENED.  ACCORDINGLY...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THESE COUNTIES 
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER...MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL PERSIST OVER THESE COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.  

LAT...LON 2643 9933 2621 9874 2712 9858 2713 9944

$$

SPEECE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 AM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...RAINDROPS KEEP FALLING ON MY HEAD...THAT SEEMS TO BE
THE THEME AROUND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS PROMISING
RAIN...BUT IN REALITY IT SEEMS TO BE HIT AND MISS WITH A MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE...AND IN DIFFERING AREAS. NONETHELESS...WILL KEEP
THE CHANCES GOING...BUT STILL LIKE THE NAM OUTPUT BETTER THAN THE
GFS. THE NAM SEEMS TO GET THE AREAS RIGHT...AND THE CHANCES SEEM TO
BE IN THE BALL PARK BETTER THAN THE GFS. IN EITHER CASE HOWEVER...A
SHOWERY REGIME IS IN PLACE AND SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES...
INCLUDING THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WITH A WEAK SHEAR
PROFILE UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING AND AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SEEMS
TO BE A GOOD RECIPE FOR MORE RAIN TODAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAVE US ALONE FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY...AS IT WILL STILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA THIS EVENING TO HELP KEEP CONVECTION
GOING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER INTO THE NIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON I HAVE INCREASED POPS OUT WEST TONIGHT. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS CAN
DECIDE IF THEY WANT TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE ZONE
WORDING FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS...ZAPATA COUNTY...OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE WEAK
PUSH...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO SCREEN GOOD INSOLATION...WILL NOT AID IN SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCTION. THAT WILL ACTUALLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES A LITTLE BEYOND THE AREA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. COPIOUS
RAINS IN THE GULF COULD REVERSE AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS THEN DEPICTS THE FORMATION OF
A COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY...MAKING IT A POTENTIALLY BIG RAIN DAY
FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WAS A LITTLE CAUTIOUS
WITH THE HIGH GFS RAIN OUTPUT HOWEVER...AND TRIMMED IT BACK QUITE A
BIT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE ROBUST FOR FRIDAY.

AFTER FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE GULF AND
EXTENDING INTO THE WEST GULF...SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...OUT
AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOWS HINTS OF REACHING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AS WELL...BUT SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT MON SEP 11 2006...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CWA OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE CWA BY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE EVENING WORDING...OTHERWISE THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...THE 1 AM OBSERVATION AT BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT
10 KNOTS AND 2 FEET SEAS WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH BY WEDNESDAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE UNDER A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BY NEXT WEEKEND
CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY.
&&

.AVIATION...FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED
OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW            89 76 89 76 89 79 / 20 20 20 10 20 40
BROWNSVILLE        91 74 91 75 91 78 / 20 20 20 20 50 40
FALFURRIAS         90 72 90 71 90 75 / 20 20 50 10 10 30
HARLINGEN          91 73 91 74 92 77 / 20 20 20 10 20 40
HEBBRONVILLE       88 72 91 71 90 74 / 20 80 30 05 10 20
MCALLEN            92 75 91 75 94 77 / 20 20 20 20 70 20
PORT ISABEL        89 76 90 78 90 78 / 20 20 20 10 20 40
RIO GRANDE CITY    92 74 91 74 93 76 / 20 60 60 10 60 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 78 89 77 89 80 / 20 20 20 10 20 40
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

54/68

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HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
528 AM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

TXZ248>257-131100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
528 AM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.