Alert archive / Massachusetts / Flood Watches in 2006
Flood Watch 4, NWS Boston/Norton, MA
NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this flood watch at Jun 7, 2006, 2:50 AM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 21 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 7, 2006, 2:50 AM EDT (06:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 8, 2006, 12:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 21 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Boston/Norton, MA
- Flood severity
- None
All 22 counties
Capitol Planning Region, CT, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Barnstable County, MA, Bristol County, MA, Dukes County, MA, Essex County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Nantucket County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Plymouth County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Cheshire County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI
The radar
The Boston radar (KBOX), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Chatham, MA (KCHH), launched 00:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 879 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 110 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS61 KBOX 070650 FFABOX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 250 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AS WELL AS SMALL STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING... MAZ005>007-012>021-026-NHZ012-015-RIZ001>007-071600- /O.NEW.KBOX.FA.A.0004.060607T0650Z-060608T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI- EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD... CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH... FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...AYER...MANCHESTER... NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD... PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT... WESTERLY...NEWPORT 250 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS... SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA...EASTERN NORFOLK MA...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA... SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA...SUFFOLK MA AND WESTERN NORFOLK MA IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN ESSEX MA AND WESTERN ESSEX MA IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA...NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH IN CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...BRISTOL RI...EASTERN KENT RI AND WESTERN KENT RI IN NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND...NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI AND SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...NEWPORT RI AND WASHINGTON RI. * THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THOUGH THE NIGHT. * PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO OCCUR NEAR THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. * THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING. A FEW OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT ARE THE PAWTUXET AT CRANSTON...THE CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER...AS WELL AS THE PISCATAQUOG RIVER AT GOFFSTOWN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SEVERAL OTHERS THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP. CURRENTLY THIS LOOKS TO BE ON THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. * IN ADDITION...THE SMALLER STREAMS WHICH TEND TO BE QUICK RESPONDERS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TODAY. * WE WILL HAVE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS SINCE THEY HAVE HAD SO MUCH RAIN IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND THE GROUND IS SATURATED. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$ FRANK
4 follow-up statements
000 WGUS61 KBOX 071012 FFABOX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 612 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AS WELL AS SMALL STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING... MAZ022-071800- /O.EXB.KBOX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-060607T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BARNSTABLE MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN 612 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS EXPANDED THE * FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREA...IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... BARNSTABLE MA. * UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON * HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN OFF THE OCEAN AND ONTO CAPE COD THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME URBAN FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$ MAZ005>007-012>021-026-NHZ012-015-RIZ001>007-071815- /O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-060608T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI- EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD... CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH... FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...AYER...MANCHESTER... NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD... PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT... WESTERLY...NEWPORT 612 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA...EASTERN NORFOLK MA... NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA...SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA...SUFFOLK MA AND WESTERN NORFOLK MA IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN ESSEX MA AND WESTERN ESSEX MA IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA...NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH IN CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...BRISTOL RI... EASTERN KENT RI AND WESTERN KENT RI IN NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND... NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI AND SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...NEWPORT RI AND WASHINGTON RI. * THROUGH THIS EVENING * PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO OCCUR NEAR THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. * THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING. A FEW OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT ARE THE PAWTUXET AT CRANSTON...THE CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER...AS WELL AS THE PISCATAQUOG RIVER AT GOFFSTOWN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SEVERAL OTHERS THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP. CURRENTLY THIS LOOKS TO BE ON THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$ FRANK
000 WGUS61 KBOX 071229 FFABOX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 829 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... MAZ005>007-012>021-026-NHZ012-015-RIZ001>007-071715- /O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-060608T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI- EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD... CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH... FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...AYER...MANCHESTER... NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD... PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT... WESTERLY...NEWPORT 829 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA...EASTERN NORFOLK MA... NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA...SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA...SUFFOLK MA AND WESTERN NORFOLK MA IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN ESSEX MA AND WESTERN ESSEX MA IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA...NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH IN CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...BRISTOL RI... EASTERN KENT RI AND WESTERN KENT RI IN NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND... NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI AND SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...NEWPORT RI AND WASHINGTON RI. * THROUGH THIS EVENING * PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORM TOTALS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. * THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SUBSTANTIAL MODERATE FLOODING IS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND. ALREADY WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 9 PM LAST NIGHT AND 8 AM THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STORM TOTALS IN THIS AREA WILL REACH 5 OR 6 INCHES BEFORE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS NORTHWARD DURING EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. * COUNTY WIDE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY POSTED AND MORE ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ISSUED OR EXTENDED DURING MIDDAY. * A FEW OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE PAWTUXET AT CRANSTON...THE CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER...AS WELL AS THE PISCATAQUOG RIVER AT GOFFSTOWN MAY EVENTUALLY EXCEED FLOOD STAGE LATE TODAY OR TOMORROW DEPENDING ON RAINFALL THE REST OF TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$ MAZ022-071715- /O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-060607T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BARNSTABLE MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN 829 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREA...IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...BARNSTABLE MA. * UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON * HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN OFF THE OCEAN AND ONTO CAPE COD THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH WILL RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING. AS OF 8 AM...3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAD DOUSED THE UPPER CAPE WITH TOTALS THERE BY NOON PROBABLY REACHING 5 OR 6 INCHES. * A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BARNSTABLE COUNTY WHERE EXTENSIVE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$ DRAG
000 WGUS61 KBOX 071446 FFABOX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1046 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN RHODE ISLAND...MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>011-023-024-NHZ011-RIZ008-072300- /O.EXA.KBOX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-060608T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA- DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-CHESHIRE NH-BLOCK ISLAND RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD... ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET... JAFFREY...KEENE...BLOCK ISLAND 1046 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS EXPANDED THE * FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT... CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...HARTFORD CT...TOLLAND CT AND WINDHAM CT IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN WORCESTER MA IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...DUKES MA AND NANTUCKET MA IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN FRANKLIN MA...EASTERN HAMPDEN MA... EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA...WESTERN FRANKLIN MA...WESTERN HAMPDEN MA AND WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... CHESHIRE NH IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND RI. * THROUGH THIS EVENING * PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORM TOTALS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. * THE THREAT EXISTS FOR BOTH SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$ MAZ022-072300- /O.EXT.KBOX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-060608T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BARNSTABLE MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN 1046 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREA...IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...BARNSTABLE MA. * THROUGH THIS EVENING * HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN OFF THE OCEAN AND ONTO CAPE COD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 5 TO 7 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. * THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...URBAN AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$ MAZ005>007-012>021-026-NHZ012-015-RIZ001>007-072300- /O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-060608T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI- EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD... CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH... FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...AYER...MANCHESTER... NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD... PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT... WESTERLY...NEWPORT 1046 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA...EASTERN NORFOLK MA... NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA...SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA...SUFFOLK MA AND WESTERN NORFOLK MA IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN ESSEX MA AND WESTERN ESSEX MA IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA...NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH IN CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...BRISTOL RI... EASTERN KENT RI AND WESTERN KENT RI IN NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND... NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI AND SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...NEWPORT RI AND WASHINGTON RI. * THROUGH THIS EVENING * THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND. IN THESE LOCATIONS...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING TO THE AREA. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BOSTON AND WORCESTER...AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...STORM TOTALS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THIS COULD BRING MODERATE FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE BOSTON AND WORCESTER AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. * THE PRIMARY THREAT IS MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$ NMB
000 WGUS61 KBOX 072123 FFABOX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 523 PM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN RHODE ISLAND...MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE... CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-080400- /O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-060608T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA- WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA- NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH- WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD... ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON... SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD... CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH... FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH... PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...AYER...JAFFREY... KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER... SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL... NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND 523 PM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS... EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...HARTFORD CT...TOLLAND CT AND WINDHAM CT IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN WORCESTER MA AND SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA... EASTERN NORFOLK MA...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA...SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA...SUFFOLK MA AND WESTERN NORFOLK MA IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN ESSEX MA AND WESTERN ESSEX MA IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...BARNSTABLE MA...DUKES MA...EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA...NANTUCKET MA...NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN FRANKLIN MA...EASTERN HAMPDEN MA...EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA...WESTERN FRANKLIN MA...WESTERN HAMPDEN MA AND WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...CHESHIRE NH...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH IN CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...BRISTOL RI...EASTERN KENT RI AND WESTERN KENT RI IN NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND...NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI AND SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND RI...NEWPORT RI AND WASHINGTON RI. * UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT * PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR DURING THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL OR RENEWED FLOODING. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BOSTON AREA AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...AS WELL AS HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AND CHESHIRE COUNTY NEW HAMPSHIRE. * THE THREAT EXISTS FOR BOTH SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Jun 7, 1:11 AM EDT, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 7, 1:11 AM EDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006
...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION...
.NEAR TERM UPDATE...
LATEST GFS MODEL HAS A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NH...EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND. WE SUSPECT THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED
HIGHER AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
MARTHAS VINEYARD JUST RECEIVED 0.66 INCHES OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES.
THE WATCH WILL INCLUDE HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NH...EASTERN
MA AND RHODE ISLAND. MUCH MOR LATER.
FRANK
&&
.WEB ENTRY...
WE ARE LOOKING FOR MAY 1-JUNE 6 TOTALS IN ESSEX COUNTY MIDDLESEX
SUFFOLK PLYMOUTH AND NORFOLK COUNTIES AS WELL AS HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTIES OVER 20 INCHES. BELIEVE OUR AMTS IN NE MASS ARE NEAR 2
FEET IN NEWBURYPORT-IPSWICH-ROCKPORT VICINITY.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS SECOND HEAVY RAIN EPISODE OF THE MONTH... WE ARE
LOOKING FOR 2 INCHES OR GREATER ANY LOCATION...AS WELL AS SMALL
STREAM FLOODING.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN WILL NEED TO BE ACTIVATED REMOTELY DURING MID MORNING WITH
POSSIBLE OFFICE SUPPORT DURING THE DAY IN THE OFFICE.
&&
.NEAR TERM UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. RADAR SHOWING 35 TO 40 DBZ ECHOES RAPIDLY ADVANCING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN WILL
PRODUCE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES IN JUST ONE HOUR. RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO THE BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE CORRIDORS BY MIDNIGHT. THEN
INTO THE NORTH SHORE...CENTRAL MA AND CONNECTICUT BETWEEN 1230 AND 2
AM.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE REGION. LATEST GFS HAS A SOLID 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE
LATEST GFS/UKMET HAVE SINCE THEY HAVE DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH
THIS SCENARIO.
FRANK
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.LATE EVENING UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO SPEED UP AND EXPAND CATEGORICAL POPS
NORTHWARD. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN QUICKLY ADVANCING TO THE
NORTHWEST. MUCH MORE LATER.
FRANK
--------------------------------------------------------------------
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF NC COAST WITH INITIAL RAIN SHIELD
ADVANCING NW ACRS CAPE AND ISLANDS. WE ARE FOLLOWING GFS AS IT IS
HANDLING CURRENT RAIN AREA MUCH BETTER THAN NAM AND IS ALSO DOING A
GOOD JOB WITH INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF COASTAL LOW. AS A RESULT WE
UPDATED FCST TO SPEED UP ONSET OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND TO INCREASE POPS
TO CATEGORICAL FROM BOS-IJD AND LIKELY ELSW.
WHILE GFS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH INITIAL QPF ACRS INTERIOR SNE THRU
06Z IT IS LIKELY ON TARGET WITH HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO COASTAL
ZONES 06-12Z AS INTENSIFYING ELY LLJ WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING FRI AS THIS AREA OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH ELY LLJ ADVANCES NWD ACRS
REGION. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ACRS E MA AND RI AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM S TO N AFT 18Z AS AREA OF BEST LIFT MOVES NWD. GFS HAS
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION SE ZONES DURING AFTN WITH SI -4 AND TT
MID 50S AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5 C/KM SO WE EXPANDED THE
CHC TSTMS ACRS SE MA AND RI.
IT WILL BECOME WINDY WED MORNING AS LLJ ADVANCES NWD ACRS REGION AND
SO WE MENTIONED PSBL GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH E ZONES.
.MARINE...
WE EXPANDED GALE WARNING TO CAPE COD BAY...BUZZ BAY AND VINEYARD
SOUND AS WE EXPECT G35 KTS FOR A TIME WED MORNING AS LLJ MOVES NWD
ACRS REGION.
.HYDROLOGY...
WE ARE EXPECTING 1-2 RAFL FROM THIS EVENT AND THERE COULD BE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY TSTMS WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACRS SE
ZONES. HEADWATER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 2 COULD POSE MINOR PROBLEMS
FOR PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON...CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AND
PISCATAQUOG RIVER AT GOFFSTOWN. PAWTUXET AND CHARLES WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST VULNERABLE AS HEAVIEST QPF AXIS AND BEST POTL FOR TSTMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THIS AREA. WE WILL LET MID SHIFT EXAMINE 00Z MODEL
SUITE BEFORE DECIDING ON PSBL FLOOD WATCHES.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
.MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY AT THIS TIME. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO AN
UNUSUAL EARLY JUNE COASTAL STORM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW IS APPROXIMATELY 1008MB
OR ABOUT 4 MILLIBARS DEEPER THAN THE LATEST 12Z NAM. THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS LOW ORIGINATING
FROM THE CARRIBEAN. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO FAVOR THE GFS WHICH ALSO HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF. THE 12Z UKMET IS FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT
SLIGHTLY WEAKER.
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL EAST NORTHEAST JET CLOSE
TO 50 KT WITH SOME STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 850 MILLIBARS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR IN TIMING TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS.
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE FORECASTING QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GFS IS RATHER ROBUST BRINGING WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.9 G/KG WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS
OCCURS THEN SOME SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL IN
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET WOULD FAVOR THIS AREA FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE THE UKMET AND NAM BRING LESSER AMOUNTS. THUS HAVE
EMPHASIZED THE THREAT FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MENTIONED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SMALLER STREAMS TO REACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL IN
AN ESFBOX STATEMENT. LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-ANALYZE THIS POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW WILL EXIT REGION THU MORNING...AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
KICKS OUT CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND KEEPS UPPER FLOW PROGRESSIVE.
LEANING MORE TOWARD 12Z GFS MEANS WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS THU
MORNING IN EASTERN ZONES AND CHANCE IN W...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
IN ALL AREAS THU AFTERNOON GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD HOLD FIRM THU NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LOCKED IN...WE SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM RAINFALL AS
WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND AWAIT YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WHICH SHOULD CLOSE OFF AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ONCE AGAIN SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD WITH TRACK...
SOMETHING WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THESE
CLOSED LOWS IN EARLY JUNE. OUR EARLY THINKING WITH HPC WAS TO EXPECT
A TRACK FROM DELMARVA FRI MORNING TO SE OF NANTUCKET SAT MORNING. 12Z
GFS NOW OFFERS A MORE EXTREME SOLUTION WITH STACKED LOW LIFTING N
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT. WE DO NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
THIS FARTHER W SOLUTION IS MORE REASONABLE...AS GFS HAS SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH BOTH CLOSED LOWS. ENSEMBLES DO NOT OFFER
MUCH HELP IN THIS CASE EITHER AS UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT SHOW ENOUGH
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN STATES AS WE WOULD EXPECT BASED UPON LARGER
SCALE FLOW.
SO CONSENSUS WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HPC IS TO CONTINUE
WITH THE MORE OFFSHORE TRACK WHICH HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM UKMET AND
CANADIAN MODELS. THIS MEANS WE WILL REINTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SAT. KEEP IN MIND A COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
CROSS REGION LATE FRI...SO CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED IN WESTERN
ZONES AS WELL.
THAT SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUN TO ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK
THROUGH OH VALLEY MON AND EDGE SLOWLY INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH RIDGING WILL HOLD MON THAT WE WILL REMAIN
DRY...THEN WE WILL BRING CHANCE POPS IN MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER TO ALL BUT SE ZONES GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY
SHOWN BY GFS.
AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR AFT 08Z TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SPREADING IN OFF THE OCEAN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.
MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE WATERS INCLUDING
NANTUCKET SOUND FOR WEDNESDAY. TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT AN ISSUE BUT
HAVE EMPHASIZED THE CONCERNS FOR HIGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS TO BOATERS
IN AN MWSBOX STATEMENT.
LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THU
NIGHT AND EARLY FRI...BEFORE N/NE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM LATER FRI INTO SAT. WE EXPECT THAT SYSTEM TO TRACK SE OF
NANTUCKET SAT MORNING...BRINGING HIGHEST SEAS E AND S OF CAPE COD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ231>234-254-255 FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2
PM WEDNESDAY.
...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ250 FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-235>237 FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO
2 AM THURSDAY.
&&
SHORT TERM/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...KJCHazardous weather outlook, Jun 6, 3:45 PM EDT, 11 hours 5 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 345 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006 ANZ230>237-250-254-255-CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015- RIZ001>008-071044- BARNSTABLE-BLOCK ISLAND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-BOSTON HARBOR-BRISTOL- BUZZARDS BAY-CAPE COD BAY-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY-CHESHIRE- COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT 40 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM NANTUCKET MA TO MARTHAS VINEYARD MA TO BLOCK ISLAND RI TO MONTAUK NY SOUTHEAST TO 20NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA OUT 20 NM-DUKES-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN HAMPDEN- EASTERN HAMPSHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-EASTERN KENT-EASTERN NORFOLK- EASTERN PLYMOUTH-HARTFORD-NANTUCKET-NANTUCKET SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY- NEWPORT-NORTHERN BRISTOL-NORTHERN WORCESTER- NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE-RHODE ISLAND SOUND- SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE-SOUTHERN BRISTOL- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH-SOUTHERN WORCESTER-SUFFOLK-TOLLAND-VINEYARD SOUND- WASHINGTON-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH-WESTERN ESSEX- WESTERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN HAMPDEN-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE-WESTERN KENT- WESTERN NORFOLK-WESTERN PLYMOUTH-WINDHAM- 345 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS... EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR NANTUCKET SOUND AND THE WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FOR THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A PERIOD OF 25 TO 35 KNOT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RIVER OR STREAM FLOODING...BUT MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE...OVER A LARGE AREA...WOULD BE NEEDED TO BEGIN MINOR FLOODING OF SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS WHICH IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. JWD
The office that day
Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 12:08 PM EDT | Wind Advisory | BOX | Barnstable, Dukes, Essex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth and 1 more | 4 hr |
| Jun 7, 4:24 PM EDT | Wind Advisory | BOX | Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk | 4 hr |
Nearby
Flood Watches in Massachusetts, 2006Flood Watches in Rhode Island, 2006Flood Watches in New Hampshire, 2006Every flood watch in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.