Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1118 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /...

ADJUSTED TEMP UPWARD ACRS INTERIORS SLIGHTLY AS SOME LOCATIONS HAD
RISEN TO BE AT OR A BIT ABOVE FCST MAXES...IN SPITE OF CI SHIELD.
REST OF PREV ZNS PKG ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006/

..REMNANTS OF ALBERTO WILL BRING SOUTHEAST SWELLS TO OUTER WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET THURSDAY AND THEN 90+ DEGREE HEAT LOOKS TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS
OF ALBERTO AS THEY PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET DURING
THURSDAY.  APPEARS THAT SEVERAL MODELS...NAMELY THE NOGAPS...GFDL...
CANADIAN RGEM AND ECMWF HAVE BEST HANDLE ON ALBERTOS REMNANTS...
WITH THE GFS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND BUT A BIT FAST.  HAVE LEANED THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS...BUT DID INCORPORATE SOME OF
THE NAM THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THE GRIDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG WEST OF NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...ALLOWING THE SURFACE REFLECTION TO BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE.  THIS...ALONG WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING
NORTHWARD PARTLY DUE TO ALBERTO...WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.  EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE BEST DYNAMICS AND HEATING WILL
OCCUR...THOUGH COULD ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDED
HEATING THIS MORNING FROM BOSTON-PROVIDENCE-HARTFORD CORRIDOR BEFORE
HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ARRIVES FROM ALBERTO.  LIFTED INDICES IN THE ZERO
TO -2 RANGE...ALONG WITH TTS AROUND 50 AND TQS IN THE UPPER
TEENS.  ALSO GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS ALBERTO MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.  AS TROUGH MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER
OFF OVER WESTERN AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...MORE MOISTURE
COULD PUSH INTO THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET DURING THURSDAY FROM
ALBERTO.  HAVE LEFT IN LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS MANCHESTER TO WORCESTER
AND WILLIMANTIC. GFS SHOWS CONTINUED GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

USED THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH A LITTLE BLENDING WITH THE MET MOS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES THRU ERN NEW ENG THU EVENING.  LINGERING
INSTABILITY WITH LI/S APPROACHING -2...TT IN L50S AND K INDICES IN
L30S ARGUES FOR INCREASING GUIDANCE POPS SO KEPT CHC RW/TRW FOR THU
EVENING ACRS E ZONES.  CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS
EWD FROM OH VLY.

MOSUNNY SKIES AND WARM FRI AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS TO MID ATLC COAST
WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.  850 TEMPS +12 SUPPORT L80S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST AS WEAK FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
LOCAL SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP.

NAM/GFS INDICATE MCS MOVING OVER RIDGE LATE FRI NIGHT...LIKELY
AFFECTING UPSTATE NY.  WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AREA OF WEAKENING SHOWERS
AND PSBL ELEVATED THUNDER MAY SPILL INTO W ZONES SAT MORNING.  WE
KEPT IT DRY FRI NIGHT AND CONFINED CHC POPS TO FAR W ZONES ON SAT.
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BRING LOTS OF MID CLOUDS TO THE REGION ON
SAT...ESPECIALLY W ZONES AND MAY DELAY ONSET OF HEAT INTO SNE SO WE
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH 80-85 AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

EXPECT SUMMER HEAT ON SUN AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACRS NEW ENG.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW 850 TEMPS APPROACHING +20 WITH DECENT WLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH 90-95 AWAY FROM THE S COAST.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN N OF REGION ON SUN.

NO CHANGES MON/TUE BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AS
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE SHORTWAVE BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY.  CONTD HOT MON AS 850
TEMPS STILL +17.  GFS INDICATES HEAT WILL CONTINUE ON TUE BUT ECMWF
COOLS IT OFF A BIT.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.  NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM ALBERTO SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY MIDDAY...WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 18Z...SO HAVE A TEMPO GROUP MENTIONED
WITH MVFR VSBYS.  SHOULD CONTINUE PAST 00Z...TAPERING OFF AFTER 03Z.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN MAINLY 4-5KFT BUT COULD SEE
PATCHY MVFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MARINE...
IN THE SHORT TERM...STARTING OFF TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT
SEAS...BUT EXPECT CHANGES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GLANCING BLOW
FROM ALBERTO DURING THURSDAY.  HAVE STARTING TO SLOWLY INCREASE SEAS
TONIGHT...BUT NO MORE THAN 4 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.  ON
THURSDAY...AS THE REMNANTS OF ALBERTO FRINGE THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.  00Z HURRICANE WAVEWATCH MODEL HAS LOWERED THE SEAS A
BIT...BUT WILL KEEP UP TO 9 FEET GOING...MAINLY IN INCREASING SE
SWELLS...AROUND 18Z THURSDAY WELL S AND E OF NANTUCKET.

LONG TERM...WE INCREASED WNAWAVE GUIDANCE THU EVENING OVER OUTER SRN
WATERS FOR SE SWELLS...UP TO 8 FT S AND E OF ACK.  SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE FRI.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SW FLOW UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OFF
MID ATLC COAST.  WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW EXPECT SEAS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT BY SUN.

HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER STAGE ON THE CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD
THIS MORNING.  THE RIVER LEVEL IS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY FALLING...BUT
LATEST FORECAST OUT OF NERFC SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ254-255 FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM
     THURSDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-
RIZ001>008-151000-
BARNSTABLE-BLOCK ISLAND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-BOSTON HARBOR-BRISTOL-
BUZZARDS BAY-CAPE COD BAY-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY-CHESHIRE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NANTUCKET MA TO MARTHAS VINEYARD MA TO BLOCK
ISLAND RI TO MONTAUK NY SOUTHEAST TO 20NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-DUKES-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN HAMPDEN-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-EASTERN KENT-EASTERN NORFOLK-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH-HARTFORD-NANTUCKET-NANTUCKET SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
NEWPORT-NORTHERN BRISTOL-NORTHERN WORCESTER-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE-SOUTHERN BRISTOL-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH-SOUTHERN WORCESTER-SUFFOLK-TOLLAND-VINEYARD SOUND-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN HAMPDEN-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE-WESTERN KENT-
WESTERN NORFOLK-WESTERN PLYMOUTH-WINDHAM-
424 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...
CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE
ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER. THE CHARLES RIVER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
FALL. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOR DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE REMNANTS OF ALBERTO ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET
ON THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ALBERTO WILL BE SOUTHEAST SWELL
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS UP TO 9 FEET OVER THE WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. PLEASE REFER TO THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY AFFECT
THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

FINALLY...90 TO 95 DEGREE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME FRAME.  HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
MAKING IT VERY UNCOMFORTABLE TO BE OUTDOORS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

KJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
118 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

CTZ003-004-MAZ004-005-011>016-141815-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN NORFOLK
MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER
MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WINDHAM CT-
118 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

AT 115 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER FRAMINGHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SUDBURY AND WELLESLEY BY 130 PM EDT...
WAYLAND AND MAYNARD BY 140 PM EDT...
WESTON AND WALTHAM BY 200 PM EDT...
LINCOLN AND CONCORD BY 210 PM EDT...
LEXINGTON AND BEDFORD BY 220 PM EDT.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM TOLLAND AND
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT...INTO SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY IN
MASSACHUSETTS. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...GET INSIDE IMMEDIATELY.

DELLICARPINI