Winter Storm Watch 9, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
325 AM MDT WED OCT 25 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TDA-TNGT...GFS AND NAM IN FAIRLY GUD
AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF STG DIGGING UPR TROF WHICH
CLOSES OFF AS IT MOVES FM GRT BASIN TO ARND 4 CORNERS BY THE
END OF PRD.  WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS ARND OK PANHANDLE SYS WILL
PRODUCE DEEP LYRD MOIST UPSLP FLO ACRS HI PLAINS AND AGNST ERN
SLP MTNS.  MDLS SHW STG DYNAMICS ALG WITH UPWRD Q-G OMEGA WITH
SYS.  MDLS ALSO SHW HIEST SNW AMTS ALG ERN SLP MTNS AND IN AND
NR ERN FTHLLS.  IT IS THIS FVRD AREA WHERE WILL ADD WNTR STRM
WATCH IN ADDITION TO SRN PTN OF URBAN CORRIDOR JUST N OF THE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE PALMER DVD DUE TO PSBL
HI WNDS.  NO QUESTION ABT PSBL HVY SNW IN MTNS AND ERN FTHLLS...
BUT OVRNGT MOS TEMPS ON PLAINS ARE FCST IN LWR TO MID 30S WHICH
CUD PROVIDE FOR SUM MELTING AND THUS REDUCE SNW AMTS.  HWVR...
WILL UNDERCUT THESE TEMPS BY A FEW DEGS.  GRT DISPARITY IN MDL
RUNS LAST EVE FM NGT BFR MAKES THIS FCSTR WARY OF CURRENT RUN
BEING LIKE FUTURE RUNS AND THIS IS REASON WHY THE WATCH WAS
ISSUED AND NOT A WRNG.  WILL KEEP LGT SNW AMTS IN MTNS IN MOIST
SWLY FLO ALF TDA IN ADV OF SYS.  WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON SHWRS
TDA OVR PLAINS WHICH MDLS KEEP MSTLY DRY.  TEMPS WILL CONT TO
BE WRM ESPCLY ON PLAINS TDA IN SPITE OF MORE CLDNS WITH CDFNT
AND MST OF COOLING ALF COMING TNGT.  WILL MAKE ONLY SML ADJSTMTS
TO MOS TEMP GDNC VALUES.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE ALONG
CO-NM BORDER NEAR TRINIDAD BY 12Z THU AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE
OK AND TX PANHANDLES BY 18Z AND THEN EAST OF AREA BY 00Z FRI.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW STG NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NERN CO THRU 18Z
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOME QG ASCENT.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM DENVER EAST SOUTHEAST TO LIMON THRU MIDDAY
THUS WILL KEEP PREVIOUS WATCH IN PLACE.  MEANWHILE COULD SEE SOME
HEAVY SNOWS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SW
OF DENVER THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY AS
WELL SO WILL EXTEND THE WSA THRU 18Z.  ALSO WILL KEEP A WSA GOING
FOR THE DENVER METRO AREA AS WELL.  BIGGEST CONCERN FOR ME WILL BE
POSSIBLE BARRIER JET WHICH COULD KEEP HEAVIEST SNOWS AWAY FROM THE
FOOTHILLS AND WRN SUBURBS WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25
EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE RECEIVING THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL.  BY THU AFTN QG ASCENT WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE NNWLY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PCPN TO END QUICKLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR
HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW OVER THE ECNTRL PLAINS
THRU ABOUT 21Z.  IN THE MTNS PCPN SHOULD END AS WELL IN THE AFTN AS
SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN.

FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE WELL EAST OF
THE AREA WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  850-700 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO
RISE ON FRI SO TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EXCEPT WHERE DEEPER SNOW
COVER EXISTS.

OVER THE WEEKEND MAINLY DRY NWNW FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO BE OVER THE
AREA WITH 850-700 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS NERN CO BOTH DAYS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...BLIZZARD WATCH PALMER DIVIDE
  AND MONUMENT RIDGE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ZONES
  41..46..AND 47.
...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING MOUNTAINS AND
  FOOTHILLS...ZONES 33..34..35 AND 36.
...WINTER STORM WATCH FM LATE EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FRONT
  RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR...ZONES 39..40 AND 45.

&&

GARD/RPK

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