Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 202043
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
241 PM MDT THU JUL 20 2006

COC069-202115-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-060720T2115Z/
LARIMER CO-
241 PM MDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL LARIMER COUNTY...

AT 231 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS SOUTHEAST OF RED FEATHER 
LAKES REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HAIL THREE QUARTERS 
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF 
RUSTIC...OR ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT COLLINS...MOVING SOUTH 
AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RUSTIC...POUDRE PARK...MISHOWAKA...LIVERMORE AND BUCKHORN MOUNTAIN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 4091 10543 4060 10569 4053 10537 4090 10514

$$

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 202112
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
312 PM MDT THU JUL 20 2006

COC069-202122-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-060720T2115Z/
LARIMER CO-
312 PM MDT THU JUL 20 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LARIMER COUNTY EXPIRED
AT 315 PM MDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED THE AREA.

LAT...LON 4091 10543 4060 10569 4053 10537 4090 10514

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
345 AM MDT THU JUL 20 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AS WAS PREDICTED BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY
SOME WEAK BUT PERSISTENT QG ASCENT HAS KEPT CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH UP TO THE PRESENT TIME.  RUC ANALYSES SHOWING THIS
ASCENT WAS WEAKENING AT 08Z AND SATELLITE STARTING TO SHOW
CLOUDINESS THINNING SOME OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.  HOWEVER...THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ASCENT WILL INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON...DECREASING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.  THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR MORE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH SOME OF IT AGAIN LINGERING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS OUT ON THE
PLAINS.  A WEAK PUSH OF UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS LAST
EVENING AND CONTINUES AT THIS HOUR.  MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER PUSH
LATER TONIGHT.  THIS MEANS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
PLENTIFUL TODAY IN ALL AREAS...INCREASING EVERYONE/S CHANCES OF
GETTING WET.  MOREOVER...GPS MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO HIGHER AT THIS HOUR THAN YESTERDAY...ALSO
BODING WELL FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.  IN FACT...THE THREAT OF
FLOODING IS ALSO ELEVATED TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE STORM MOVEMENT THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALSO DUE TO THE INCREASED WINDS ALOFT THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO BRING A SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER BACK INTO PLAY.  BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WOULD BE ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST.  LAST
BUT NOT LEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN ALL LOCALES COUPLE WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
ON THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WL HEAD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS FRIDAY MRNG LEAVING FAIRLY STG AND DEEP NELY FLOW ACRS THE
PLAINS DURING THE AFTN.  MID LVL MSTR WL STILL BE SUBSTANIAL WITH
SFC DWPTS HOLDING INTO THE 50S ACRS MOST OF THE PLAINS.  SOME
COOLING WL OCCUR ARND H7 WITH TEMPS FALLING TO 10-12 DEGREES C.  IT
STILL APPEARS THE NERN PLAINS WL BE TOO STABLE TO SEE MUCH
PCPN...BUT FTHILLS AND FNT RANGE SHOULD GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS
FRIDAY AFTN EVENING.  STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINERS GIVEN ALL THE
MSTR ALF...BUT STG NWLY STEERING WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS MOVING
AT A GOOD CLIP.  WL KEEP THE HIGH SCT POPS IN THE FCST.

AIRMASS WL DRY APPRECIABLY SATURDAY...BUT ELY FLOW NR THE SFC SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S ACRS THE PLAINS.  PRECIP COVERAGE WL BE
MUCH LESS THAN FRIDAY...BUT SOME STORMS STILL XPCTD IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT FNT RANGE AREAS.  SLOW WRMG TREND WL BEGIN
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BCMS CNTRD OVR THE GREAT BASIN.  NWLY FLOW
WL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.  A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WL MV ACRS THE TOP OF THE RDG INTO OUR AREA WHICH WL
AIDE IN DVLPG PRECIP MON AND WED.  TEMPS WL CLIMB BACK UP TO NR TO
SLGTLY ABV NRML LVLS FOR NEXT WEEK.  LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BREAK
FROM THE SCORCHING TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

ET/046

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1101 AM MDT THU JUL 20 2006

COZ030>051-211200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1101 AM MDT THU JUL 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL AS USHER IN ANOTHER PUSH OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AS A
RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.

DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
...ALTHOUGH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. THE BURN AREAS IN THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

FMC/SWE