Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
225 PM MDT MON JUL 17 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
COLORADO THROUGH TUESDAY.  PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING TO AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE...WITH A LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW IN PLACE.  STORMS HAVE REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTN.  MID LVL CAP AND COOLER AMS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS SHUD CAP MOST OF THE TSTM POTENTIAL OVR THE NERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MNTN OF ISOLD TSTMS. AS FAR AS
THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS ARE CONCERNED...ONGOING CONVECTION COULD AMT
IN SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE BURN AREAS...PARTICULARLY HAYMAN.  STORMS HOWEVER HAVE
DRIFTED AWAY FM THE BURN AREA SO FAR THIS AFTN.  AS FOR TUESDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE WL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR A SLGTLY BETTER WLY
FLOW ALOFT. PROGGED PW VALUES ARE STILL NEAR 1 INCH... WITH CAPES FM
1200-2200 J/KG.  MAIN QUESTION MAY AGAIN BE THE WARM MID LVL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS AREAS.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SCT POPS
MTNS...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS OVER THE PLAINS.  WITH WEAK SFC TROF IN
PLACE OVR ERN CO...LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SWLY.  TEMPERATURES MAY
AGAIN THREATEN TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...TUE NGT-THU...MDLS MAINTAIN A BROAD FLAT
UPR RDG OVR WRN AND CNTL U.S. THRU PRD.  THIS WILL CONT TO ALLOW
MID AND HI LVL MONSOONAL MSTR TO BE ENTRAINED IN THE CIRC AND TO
SPRD INTO THE CNTRL RCKYS.  FCST UPR AIR SOUNDINGS SHW GUD CAPES
AND ONLY SML AMTS OF CIN AND PW VALUES TO ARND 1 INCH ON PLAINS.
FOR THIS REASON WILL INCREASE POPS ACRS AREA THRU PRD.  ON THU A
CDFNT WILL MOVE S OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL INCRS LO LEVEL MSTR
AND CHC OF PCPN ESPCLY IN AND NR ERN FTHLLS.  FARTHR TO E COOLER
AMS AT SFC MAY KEEP AMS CAPPED...BUT WILL KEEP SML POPS FOR NOW.
LCLY HVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ON BOTH DAYS.  TEMPS WILL RECOVER ON WED
AND BE QUITE WARM AGAIN ESPCLY ON PLAINS...BUT CDFNT ON THU WILL
COOL TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONL NORMS.  WILL GENLY COMPROMISE AMONGST
MOS TEMP GDNC VALUES BUT FAVR THE COOLER NAM12 SFC TEMPS ON THU.

IN EXTENDED PRD...FRI-MON...MDLS BUILD HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG OVER
WRN U.S. WITH W TO NWLY FLO ALF ACRS CNTRL RCKYS.  HWVR DEEP LYR
MEAN CIRC CONTS TO SHOW MONSOONAL MSTR ENTRAINED IN THIS FLO ALF
AND SPRDNG INTO FCST AREA THRU MON AS DRIER AIR FM NW IS SHUNTED
TO N AND E.  WILL THUS INCRS POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF LATE DAY
CONVECTION AND KEEP TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

COOPER/GARD...WFO BOULDER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1112 AM MDT MON JUL 17 2006

COZ030>051-181200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1112 AM MDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS WELL.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IF ENOUGH WARMING DOES TAKE PLACE
HOWEVER...THEN THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  THE HAYMAN BURN AREA WOULD BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

COOPER/GARD...WFO BOULDER