Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 022233
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
427 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2006

COC035-039-022245-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-060702T2245Z/
ELBERT CO-DOUGLAS CO-
427 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL DOUGLAS AND NORTHWESTERN ELBERT COUNTIES...

AT 427 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CASTLEWOOD CANYON...OR
ABOUT 29 MILES NORTH OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SEVERAL OTHER THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN DOUGLAS AND WESTERN ELBERT 
COUNTIES MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CASTLE PINES...THE PINERY...PONDEROSA PARK...PERRY PARK...LARKSPUR...
KIOWA...FRANKTOWN...ELIZABETH...ELBERT AND CASTLE ROCK.

HEAVY RAINS HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE VERY SLOW MOVING 
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND 
UNDERPASSES IS LIKELY. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED 
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND 
RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY 
FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF 
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE 
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE IN 
DANGER OF BEING STRUCK BY LIGHTNING

LAT...LON 3945 10494 3915 10503 3915 10443 3955 10450

$$

BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
312 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING
FAIRLY DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
MOVEMENT IS PRETTY SLOW.  PLAINS DEW POINTS HAVE DRIED SOME INTO THE
40S F OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  FURTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST...DEW
POINTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S.  OUT ON THE PLAINS...CONVECTION IS NOT
SURVIVING TO WELL YET.  INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE DECENT CAPE
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS RIGHT NOW
BEING BREACHED.  THE RADAR AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A COUPLE
CONVERGENCE AREAS OVER THE PLAINS.  TODAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.  WILL KEEP DECENT POPS GOING OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS FOR SURE.   GRIDS KEEP FAIRLY WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS FIELDS SHOW A SURGE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY MORNING.  THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
SYNOPTIC SCALE UPWARD MOTION PROGGED ON MONDAY.  THE DEW POINTS
STILL LOOK GOOD WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE PLAINS.  IT DOES LOOK COOLER
MONDAY WITH THE SURGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SIMILAR CAPE VALUES
AS TODAY....BUT THEY DO SHOW IT TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION.
PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE A GOOD TOOL THESE DAYS.  WILL GO SIMILAR
POPS TO TODAYS FOR MONDAYS...PERHAPS A TAD LOWER WITH THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN MIND.  FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAYS HIGHS LOOK 2-4 C
COOLER THAN TODAYS.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REAMPLIFY
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CREATING A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AND CONTINUED
FRONTAL SURGES SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AS A RESULT...DAILY ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN CLOSE TO AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK.  THEREFORE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THREAT OF
SEVERE WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH LIMITED CAPE VALUES IN TYPICAL
MONSOONAL FASHION.

TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH CONTINUED WEAK FRONTAL SURGES DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT....MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS WITH REGARDS TO
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE AND WHETHER THIS WILL ACTUALLY CAP OFF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL
STORMS...WHILE LESSER CHANCES SEEM PRUDENT FOR THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK CLOSER TO 90F ON THE PLAINS GIVEN
WARMING ALOFT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KOOPMEINERS/BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1048 AM MDT SUN JUL 02 2006

COZ030>051-031200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1048 AM MDT SUN JUL 02 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS BEFORE MIDDAY AND SPREAD OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AIRMASS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.  LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL KEEP THE
AIRMASS RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  AS A RESULT...ONE OR TWO
STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME SEVERE EACH DAY
WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

KOOPMEINERS/BARJENBRUCH