Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
306 PM MDT SAT JUL 1 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR PICTURES ARE SHOWING DECENT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME.
INITIALLY NOTHING HAS SURVIVED OUT ON THE PLAINS...HOWEVER DEW
POINTS HAVENT DECREASED AS OF YET...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 50S F.
RADAR SHOWS SOME CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE AREAS OVER PORTIONS THE
PLAINS.  THE STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER US.
INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE...OVER 1000 JOULES/KG FOR
MOST AREAS OF THE PLAINS WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE DATA....WITH THE
CIN GONE ALREADY.  DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY FEATURE ON THE WATER
VAPOR PICTURES RIGHT NOW BUT THE CONVECTION ON THE RADAR DOES SEEM
TO INDICATE SOME SORT OF MINOR SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN ENERGY.  HARD TO
SAY.  WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED POPS GOING FOR THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING WITH ALL CONSIDERED.  WILL GET RIDE OF SEVERE MENTION WITH
CURRENT CONVECTIONS TRACK RECORD IN MIND.  ON SUNDAY MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER MOVING AROUND A BIT BUT THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
AS IS.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO IT ALL
DAY SUNDAY FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. SUNDAYS BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINT FIELDS NEVER DIP BELOW 45 F ON THE PLAINS OR FOOTHILLS.
THERE IS A THETA-E AXIS COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL COLORADO ON
SUNDAY...WHICH INDICATIVE OF THE MONSOON PATTERN.  SUNDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  PERSISTENCE TO PREVAIL.
THICKNESS/TEMPERATURE FIELDS SHOW SUNDAYS HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO THIS
AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTED
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACES EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
COLORADO.  THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MOIST PATTERN SO IDEA OF
SCATTERED POPS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.  THIS COULD ALSO PROVIDE
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND DECREASE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.  IT IS
STILL HARD TO IDENTIFY ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES THAT WOULD FOCUS THE
ACTIVITY...SO LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL START LATE MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN SPREAD AND DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY...SOME DRYING IS STILL ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY.  THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THEN
ANOTHER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WOULD BE POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT MORE EASTWARD AND INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RJK/BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1035 AM MDT SAT JUL 01 2006

COZ030>051-021200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1035 AM MDT SAT JUL 01 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS BY MIDDAY AND SPREAD OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL.  THERE IS MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.  AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.  EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MOIST AND FAIRLY
UNSTABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A FEW STORMS ON THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME SEVERE EACH DAY WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RJK/BARJENBRUCH