Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
325 PM MDT MON MAY 22 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...LOTS OF LIGHTNING HEADED OUR WAY THIS
AFTN...AND STORMS MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP.  ALL THIS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE 4 CORNERS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MIXED OUT
ON THE PLAINS...SO DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  THERE IS STILL A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SMALL THEAT OF A TORNADO.  STORMS SHOULD MOVE TO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND MOSTLY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND URBAN
CORRIDOR BY MID EVENING.  THERE WILL BE CONTINUED SHOWER AND SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LIFTING TONIGHT...AND REACH NORTHEAST
COLORADO TOMORROW MORNING.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN
DOWNSLOPE AND DRYER CONDITIONS.  HAVE CONTINUED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TUESDAY FOR THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOWER RH...AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.  WILL LET THE MID SHIFT
MAKE THE DETERMINATION ON WHETHER TO ISSUE A WARNING.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...TUESDAY NIGHT...A MDT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE CWFA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF WHICH WL BE
IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z WED.  DOWNWARD OMEGA IN THE EVENING...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MSTR AOA 700 MB.  THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MID LVL
MSTR VS THE NAM ON TUESDAY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING ANY POPS TO THE MTNS. FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION.  FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHUD HELP BRINGS THE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT MORE
SO CUD AGAIN HIT THE 90 DEGREE MARK AT THAT TIME.  NO MSTR TO WORK
WITH SO POPS WL BE NIL.  AS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ONE UPPER
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER BY
MONDAY...BOTH OF WHICH SHUD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE CWFA IN TERMS
OF PCPN. BOTH KEEP W AND N OF COLORADO.  IF ANY STORMS DVLP IT MAY
BE IN THE MTNS ...ITS TOO EARLY HOWEVER TO ADD THIS LONGSHOT TO THE
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIREWEATHER WATCH TUE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR...SOUTH PARK AND PALMER DIVIDE FROM 18Z/TUE TO 01Z/WED. FW
ZONES IN WATCH: 214..215..216..238..239..240..241..243..245..246 AND
247.

&&

GLANCY/COOPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1036 AM MDT MON MAY 22 2006

COZ030>051-231200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1036 AM MDT MON MAY 22 2006

...POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF
WASHINGTON...LOGAN...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WHERE HEATING
HAS BEEN STRONGEST AND DEWPOINTS ARE THE HIGHEST.  THERE MAY BE TOO
MUCH CLOUDINESS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND URBAN CORRIDOR TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AROUND NOON...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE BY
MID AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR...STORMS MAY PRODUCE PENNY
SIZED HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL ALSO RECEIVE
SOME LIFT AHEAD OF A STRONG DISTURBANCE THAT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH
THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
...THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING THE GREATER DENVER METRO AREA
...THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA AND SOUTH PARK. THIS WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE THE PRIMARY REASONS FOR
THIS WATCH. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF RATHER POTENT WEATHER DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AS
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES OVER THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

GLANCY/COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
848 PM MDT MON MAY 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     HAIL             5 E ARRIBA              39.28N 103.18W
05/22/2006  M0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FREDIN