Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 122139
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
339 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2006

COC087-121-122149-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-060812T2145Z/
WASHINGTON CO-MORGAN CO-
339 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MORGAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 345 PM MDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 4051 10347 4044 10347 4044 10346 4043 10317
      4020 10344 4020 10346 4021 10349 4026 10365
      4052 10353

$$
BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
220 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MAKE
ITS WAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  THE NAM/GFS SHOW SOME WEAK UPWARD QG OMEGA UNTIL
AROUND 00Z AOA 700 MB.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING WILL
BE EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THIS FEATURE EXTENDS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FM JULESBURG TO BYERS TO KIOWA.  BEST LOW LVL MSTR WILL BE
EAST OF THIS LINE...WITH DRIER AIR WEST OF THE LINE.  INCRG SWLY
FLOW WITH PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TSTMS
HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY STAYING TOGETHER IN THE FOOTHILLS.  DOWNSLOPE
HAS BEEN STRONG ENUF TO NEGATE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR ERLY THIS AFTN.  SHUD SEE COVERAGE IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BUT
WIND AND BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS THE PRIMARY THREATS
....WITH DRIER LOW LVL AMS IN PLACE. BEST PW VALUES ARE EAST OF THE
LINE MENTIONED EARLIER WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWS OF 1.1 TO
1.35 INCHES AND LAPS SFC BASED CAPES FM 1300-2500 J/KG.  MOST OF THE
TSTM ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHC IN THE GRIDS FOR ZONES 48>51 AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CUD SEE
SOME ISOLD SVR IN THE NERN PLAINS DUE TO BETTER SHEAR BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL BE MAINLY BE HEAVY RAIN AND STG WINDS.  NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ON SUNDAY WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AMS IN
PLACE.  A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE AFTN AND THIS CUD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM BUT BEST THE
CHC WILL LIKELY BE IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THIS ALREADY
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MDLS INDG A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE WILL HEAD DOWN
THE FNT RANGE AND PLAINS...PSBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING.  BEHIND
THIS FEATURE THERE WILL BE SOME STG N AND NELY FLOW UP TO H7.  GOOD
LIFT...WHICH HAS BEEN PRESENT ALL WKND...WL CONTINUE THRU MONDAY AS
JET STREAM REMAINS OVER CNTRL WY.  PWS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB RAPIDLY
AS MSTR POOLS OVR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND THE FNT RANGE.  NAM 12 REALLY
GOES BALLISTIC WRT QPF AND MSTR...GFS MORE MODERATE SOLUTION LOOKS
MORE PLAUSIBLE.  WITH ALL OF THE CLDS AND MSTR...TEMPS WL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH MOST LOCATIONS RMNG IN THE 70S.  ALL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HVY RAINS...BUT STEERING
FLOW WL BE STG ENUF FOR THE STORMS TO KEEP MOVG.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...H5 RDG WL PROGRESS EWD INTO CNTRL OK THIS
WEEK.  DEEP SLY FETCH OF MSTR WL KEEP STREAMING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  THIS WILL KEEP
DAILY CHCS FOR AFTN STORMS GOING OMTNS.  A COUPLE OF WEEK SHORTWAVES
MAY BRIEFLY SHUNT THE MSTR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT THURSDAY...
BUT MORE MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS DEEP SLY FLOW
CONTINUES OVR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

COOPER/046

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1051 AM MDT SAT AUG 12 2006

COZ030>051-131200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1051 AM MDT SAT AUG 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS AFTER 2 PM.

WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN AN HOUR OR TWO.  IN
ADDITION...AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM AROUND NEW RAYMER TO FORT MORGAN TO BYERS TO CASTLE ROCK...
WHERE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH AND LARGE HAIL...UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT THE AIRMASS OVER
NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

COOPER/046