Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 1 2006

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CHANGES WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO SLIP ACROSS SRN WY/NRN CO OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  AN UPPER LEVEL JET 60 KTS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CWFA TNGT WITH SOME UPWARD QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  AS A
RESULT...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS CARRY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LAPS SFC
BASED CAPES THIS AFTN RANGE FM 300-1300 J/KG ALG THE URBAN CORRIDOR
AND NRN BORDER...BUT MUCH LESS EAST OF DENVER...WHERE SOME CIN IS
PRESENT AS WELL. WL UP POPS TO LIKELY IN THE MTNS BUT KEEP SCT
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.  INTERACTIVE CAPES ONLY IN THE 300-700 J/KG
RANGE.  ALTHO PW VALUES ARE OVER ONE INCH...INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
SIGNIFICANT.  STORM MOTION BETTER AS WELL VS YDA...SO ALTHOUGH SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...THE CELL MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15
KTS. FOR THIS REASON WL LAY OFF ANY MENTION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
AS FOR WEDNESDAY...AMS WILL BE MORE SUBSIDENT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROF.  CAPES ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE AS WELL...SO WILL
FAVOR SCT POPS NEAR OMTNS BUT JUST ISOLD COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 55 TO 70 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MAINLY SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY.  FOR MOISTURE ...THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE A BIT DRIER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THEN THEY DID YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME MOISTURE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AREA IN THE 0.70 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S F RANGE
THROUGH FRIDAY.  THERE IS A THETA-E AXIS COVERING THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. CAPE-WISE ...THERE IS LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BIT
MORE LATE DAY THURSDAY ...THE BEST LATE DAY FRIDAY.  CROSS SECTION
SHOW FRIDAYS LAPSE RATES TO BE THE STEEPEST.  QPF GRIDS SHOW BEST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATE DAY FRIDAY.  WILL MAKE MINOR
POPS ADJUSTMENTS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY LOOK 1-2 C WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY.  FRIDAY LOOKS 1-2.5 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTER LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
TUESDAY.  THERE IS STILL MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THICKNESS VALUES KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

COOPER/KOOPMEINERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1039 AM MDT TUE AUG 01 2006

COZ030>051-021200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1039 AM MDT TUE AUG 01 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AROUND
MIDDAY...AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE
HAVE ALL INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

COOPER/KOOPMEINERS