Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Boise, ID

000 
WWUS55 KBOI 080014
SVSBOI

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
612 PM MDT WED JUN 7 2006

ORC001-080030-
/O.CON.KBOI.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-060608T0030Z/
BAKER OR-
512 PM PDT WED JUN 7 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM PDT
FOR CENTRAL BAKER COUNTY...

AT 503 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF BAKER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. STORM SPOTTERS 
REPORTED THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS CROSSING OREGON HIGHWAY 7 SOUTH 
OF BAKER CITY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...BAKER AROUND 530 PM PDT.

LAT...LON 4467 11823 4452 11810 4469 11759 4490 11776

$$

KP

000 
WWUS55 KBOI 080027
SVSBOI

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
627 PM MDT WED JUN 7 2006

ORC001-080037-
/O.CAN.KBOI.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-060608T0030Z/
BAKER OR-
527 PM PDT WED JUN 7 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BAKER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4467 11823 4452 11810 4469 11759 4490 11776

$$

KP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
320 PM MDT WED JUN 7 2006

.SHORT TERM...FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. KBOI 18Z SOUNDING
HAD ONE INCH OF PW. THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DOWN OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA TODAY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE.
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE MOST SUN TODAY INCLUDE THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY...WEST CENTRAL...AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS OVER THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
COULD SUPPORT LONGER LIVED CELLS WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE
CHARACTERISTICS. ATMOSPHERE OVER REST OF CWA IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THUNDER AS WELL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH ENERGY AND SHEAR TO FAVOR
SEVERE STORMS. WITH PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH...FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS A THREAT FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR
TONIGHT UPPER LOW PUSHES INLAND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING MAIN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY AROUND 45N/130W WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH. BASE OF TROUGH ANCHORED WITH A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY
SWINGING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CA COAST. WITH ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
GFS MODEL LOOKED TO HAVE BETTER 12Z INITIALIZATION WITH ENERGY
COMING AROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH SO CONTINUED WITH TREND TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION. FOR TOMORROW TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH FORECAST
AREA SO THREAT OF CONVECTION CONTINUES WITH GREATEST THREAT AGAIN
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO ZONES. UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND THE PANHANDLE OF IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WITH TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EAST OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY. PRECIP WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAINLY FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GET
CONFUSED BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME. THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH
PERIODS OF MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THEN...A DEEPER TROF
SWINGS IN FROM THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
SPREADING IN OVER THE AREA.  GFS TAKES A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND KEEPS IT STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THIS PATTERN COULD
POTENTIALLY BE A WET AND COOL PATTERN IF GFS IS CORRECT. BEYOND DAY
FIVE...MODELS HAVING LOTS OF DIFFICULTY IN AGREEMENT ON PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AND MAINLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO DURING THE PAST HOUR AND APPEAR TO BE
GETTING STRONGER. TWEB ROUTES EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED THE MOST THIS
EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE TERMINAL AREAS WILL HAVE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AS INCREASING DYNAMICS
SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THIS ISOLATED
SEVERE CONVECTION. SEVERE STORM CENTER STILL DECIDING ON WHETHER TO
ISSUE SEVERE CONVECTIVE WATCH BOX BUT EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT ONE
WOULD BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM..........DG
LONG TERM/AVIATION..GS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 AM MDT WED JUN 7 2006

IDZ011>016-028>030-ORZ061>064-081500-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ID-BOISE MOUNTAINS-
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY-SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
CAMAS PRAIRIE-OWYHEE MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY-
HARNEY COUNTY-BAKER COUNTY-MALHEUR COUNTY-
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY OR-
751 AM PDT WED JUN 7 2006 /851 AM MDT WED JUN 7 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST IDAHO...WEST CENTRAL IDAHO...NORTHEAST OREGON
AND SOUTHEAST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...DAYTIME HEATING...AND FORCING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST
DEVELOP ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WILL MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AND THEN ONLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ECOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.