Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
235 PM MDT TUE JUL 25 2006

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME IS PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN SUN
VALLEY AND SALMON.  FEATURE ALSO KICKING OFF ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT
THIS HOUR ALONG THE IDAHO NEVADA BORDER EAST OF THE TROF AXIS. AIR
MASS EAST OF THE TROF REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. OTHERWISE...DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THIS TROF OVER OREGON IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE
AND A SUPPRESSION OF ACTIVITY IN EASTERN OREGON. FOR TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE...DRY AIR AND CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DOMINATE THE REGION.  THICKNESS VALUES FALL A LITTLE WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE CURRENT WEAK SHORT WAVE AND WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES OVER TODAYS READINGS. BY
THURSDAY...THE THERMAL TROF AXIS REBUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS REBOUND IN HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL BRING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BACK TO THE AREA. IF WE
REACH 100F AT BOISE WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RECORD STRING OF 100F PLUS
DAYS IS IN JEOPARDY WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALMOST SURE TO
HAPPEN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BIG CONCERNS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE REGION THE
LAST WEEK OR SO IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY. SO COOLING TREND
IS EXPECTED AFTER FRIDAY. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND BAKER COUNTY. THEN
THE BIG TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND STILL SHOW IT IN THIS MORNINGS
RUNS...SO HARD TO IGNORE.  AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN COULD SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS 100KT 300 MB JET DRIVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD NOT BODE WELL FOR ONGOING
FIRES. TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD BE AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY.  AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THIS ALSO HELPS DRIVE MOISTURE FROM NEVADA INTO THE TWIN
FALLS AREA FOR BETTER CHANCES OF WET THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET SCOURED OUT TONIGHT. SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM.....GS
LONG TERM......CR/DD
AVIATION.......CR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
543 AM MDT TUE JUL 25 2006

IDZ011>016-028>030-ORZ061>064-261145-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ID-BOISE MOUNTAINS-
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY-SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
CAMAS PRAIRIE-OWYHEE MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY-
HARNEY COUNTY-BAKER COUNTY-MALHEUR COUNTY-
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY OR-
443 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 /543 AM MDT TUE JUL 25 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST IDAHO...WEST CENTRAL IDAHO...NORTHEAST OREGON
AND SOUTHEAST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.