Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
313 PM CDT WED OCT 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LONG ADVERTISED PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ABOUT TO COMMENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS OF 19Z...LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST FRONT HAS
MADE IT AS FAR AS MKL...MEM...AND MLU. BAND OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF TCL AND
BHM...NORTHEASTWARD INTO TN...AND EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE A
LITTLE BIT MORE DURING THE COARSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT/END FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...AND WILL LIMIT SMALL POPS TONIGHT TO EASTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA. AND THUS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF FRONT NUMBER 2.

NAM HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS. THIS IMPLIES THAT TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
RECOVER INTO THE 70S TOMORROW MOST AREAS (ALL BUT NORTHWEST
CORNER). HIGHS TOMORROW REMAIN PROBLEMATIC...DUE TO THE TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT AND THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.

THE BIG CHILL STARTS TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 40S BY FRIDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AT A
GOOD CLIP INTO FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT PENETRATION OF
COLD AIR WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DIRECT INTO THE STATE AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT. THINKING BACK...I SHOULD HAVE PROBABLY TAKEN THE GFSS
COLD BIAS AT LONGER FORECAST PERIODS INTO ACCOUNT. GIVEN
INCREASING EVIDENCE...WILL SUCCOMB TO THE PRESSURE AND TWEEK
FRIDAYS TEMPS UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES (BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW MOS).

COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR STILL IN STORE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. CO-OP MOS ACTUALLY GIVING HAMILTON A LOW OF 28 DEGREES
SATURDAY MORNING...AND REGULAR MOS GOES TO 40 OR BELOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS JUST SEEMS A BIT TOO LOW TO ME. BUT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FROST CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST A
PART OF THE AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WARMING TREND...AS
LOW LEVELS START TO RELOAD THE MOISTURE. SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS FAIL TO SHED ANY LIGHT ON WHEN/HOW THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LOW WILL EJECT. THUS...WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

SCT-BKN 3-5 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AT
TCL, BHM, EET, AND ANB WITH PASSAGE. AFTER 02Z...FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AT 2-3 KNOTS. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  70  42  59 /  20  30  20   0
ANNISTON    53  74  47  59 /  20  20  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  70  45  60 /  10  20  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  53  72  44  63 /  10  20  20   0
CALERA      54  73  47  60 /  10  20  20   0
AUBURN      52  79  43  61 /  20  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  55  79  49  64 /  20  20  20  10
TROY        53  80  49  65 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
114 PM CDT WED OCT 11 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-121200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
114 PM CDT WED OCT 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEST ALABAMA. THE STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM CDT UNTIL 7 PM CDT AND IN AREAS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS...MAINLY VALLEYS...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AS THE
COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.