Alert archive / Alabama / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Birmingham, AL

July 29, 2006Marion County, Alabama

NWS Birmingham, AL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 29, 2006, 1:26 PM CDT for Marion County, Alabama. It was in force for 19 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 29, 2006, 1:26 PM CDT (18:26 UTC)
Expired: Jul 29, 2006, 1:45 PM CDT
In force: 19 min
Issued by: NWS Birmingham, AL
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Marion County, AL

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 387 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -108 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1359 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -34 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Birmingham, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 29, 12:30 PM CDT, 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 12:30 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

.UPDATE...ADDED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR
TODAY...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS A POTENT (AS FAR AS THE
SUMMER IS CONCERNED) UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MAV GUIDANCE GOING CATEGORICAL POPS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 (INCLUDING 100 PERCENT FOR KBHM)...IT SURE IS TOUGH
TO ARGUE AGAINST THOSE NUMBERS GIVEN ITS PAST RECORD IN THE FIRST
PERIOD WHEN FORECASTING CATEGORICAL. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MAV GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO
HAVE SIDED MORE WITH ETA MOS NUMBERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DO SO AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
EXIST.

UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
SUNDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SO HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS CONVECTION. BELIEVE MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE COOL SIDE SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR HIGHS.

BY MONDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ROTATE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS EAST
MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS POINT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LOST A LOT OF
ITS POTENCY SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA...
HIGHER WEST TO EAST.

KNS/99

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...THE NET RESULT BRINGS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.

IN SPITE OF SUBTLE RUN TO RUN CHANGES...THE MAIN THEME CONSISTENT
WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. AS NOTED BY
FFC...GFS HAS BEEN TRYING TO STAMP SOME SORT OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE...BUT HAS NOW SHIFTED FROM A CAROLINA
SYSTEM TO A MORE BELIEVABLE EASTERLY WAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH IS WELL OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALL
IN ALL...A RELATIVELY FEATURELESS SPELL...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE DISTURBANCES FORECAST INTO THE AREA.

AS SUCH...AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS HOLDING FAIRLY HIGH...
SURE SEEMS THAT MAINTAINING A VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST IS THE
THING TO DO. BASICALLY MADE VERY FEW AND MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
EXTENDED...MAINTAINING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.  FORECAST HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE
CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE HIGHS...AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED MEX FOR LOW TEMPS
WITH ONLY A FEW LOCAL EFFECTS.  TRENDED MEX POPS DOWN TOWARDS
ENSEMBLE MEANS IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT TWEAKS WERE VERY MINOR.

JD/81

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND FOR MCH
OF THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MORNING.
CLOUD DECKS SHOULD RUN AROUND TEN THOUSAND FEET...LOWERING TO 3 TO 5
THOUSAND IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT...FOG OR MIST LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUSCALOOSA, BIRMINGHAM,
ANNISTON, AND CALERA.  VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE TO 3 TO 5
MILES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 29, 5:50 AM CDT, 7 hours 36 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Birmingham, AL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 28, 9:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Barbour	25 min
Jul 29, 1:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Marion	11 min
Jul 29, 2:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Marion, Walker	10 min
Jul 29, 3:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Walker	27 min
Jul 29, 3:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Pickens	21 min
Jul 29, 4:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	St. Clair	31 min
Jul 29, 4:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Tuscaloosa	26 min
Jul 29, 4:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Talladega	31 min
Jul 29, 4:48 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BMX	Talladega	27 min
Jul 29, 5:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Clay	36 min
Jul 29, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Cleburne	25 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Alabama, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.