Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 221744
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1243 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

ALC107-221800-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0294.000000T0000Z-060722T1800Z/
PICKENS AL-
1243 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY...

AT 1241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR GORDO...OR ABOUT 14 MILES WEST OF LAKE LURLEEN STATE
PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3333 8814 3343 8796 3334 8785 3316 8785
      3315 8787 3315 8789 3313 8794

$$

JD/81

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
754 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY).

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY...AT LEAST TEMPORARY CHANGES.  THE BIG
SOUTHEASTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN...AND A EASTERN
U.S. TROF IS BEGINNING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.  THIS IS LEADING TO
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALONG WITH A SMALL
(BUT NOTICEABLE) MODERATION OF THE RECENT HOT WEATHER WEVE BEEN
HAVING.

THE MORNING SURFACE MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THE COLD FRONT IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS UPSTREAM (OHIO RIVER TO RED RIVER).  HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS MADE IT ALL THE WAY INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA (SHOWS UP NICELY ON RADAR AND IN SURFACE PRESSURE
ANALYSIS).  THIS BOUNDARY BRIEFLY ENHANCED A FLARE UP OF CONVECTION
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE AREA IS NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NORTH
GEORGIA.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL STILL LIKELY HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON THE DETAILS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON TODAY...
AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY WHERE IT ENDS UP.  AT FIRST...I
THOUGHT THAT MAYBE IT WOULD CONTINUE TO SET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS MORNING IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AND THEN EVERYTHING WOULD SHIFT
SOUTH.  HOWEVER...I AM NOW BEGINNING TO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL STALL...AND DEVELOPMENT MAY WAIT UNTIL THINGS HEAT UP A BIT
MORE IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON (AND ALSO WAIT FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO CATCH UP). THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO PLACE THE HIGHEST
POPS TODAY IN THE NORTH HALF. GIVEN THE SUMMERTIME AIR MASS...AND THE
POTENTIAL LARGE CAPES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THE MORE ORGANIZED THE
STORMS CAN BECOME (SUCH AS IN A LINE)...THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SINCE I BELIEVE THE RAIN MAY ACTUALLY TAKE A WHILE TO REDEVELOP...
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO CLIMB
BEFORE THE RAIN HIT (ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH).  THEREFORE...
DECIDED TO GO ABOVE MAVMOS HIGHS AGAIN TODAY.

WILL ESSENTIALLY BUY INTO THE GFS SCENARIO TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH REGARD TO THE COLD FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND MOISTURE
FIELDS.  THIS SHIFTS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AND ALSO BRINGS TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY).
NO HUGE SURPRISES THIS PACKAGE BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MEMBERS. MAIN
CHALLENGE REMAINS RAIN CHANCES AND AERIAL PLACEMENT.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PAST SEVERAL EXTENDED DISCUSSIONS...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WITH TWO STOUT RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL JET PATTERN KEEPS SYSTEMS RATHER PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THIS WILL VIRTUALLY CUT OFF THE TROUGH
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT NO DIGGING OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED BEYOND MONDAY...WITH A SLOW HEIGHT RISE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF ARE MUCH MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH A
PIECE OF THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA BY PERIODS END FROM
THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL THEREFORE LOSE ITS AMPLITUDE.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM MONTGOMERY TO
LAFAYETTE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT ENDS UP PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW INITIALLY AND WILL HANG UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND AND EVENTUALLY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
DEFINITION BY PERIODS END...AS SURFACE FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH IN MOST PLACES. THIS MEANDERING WILL ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TO
THE POP FORECAST AREAS. WILL KEEP THE GENERAL TREND OF BEST POPS
SOUTHEAST TO BEGIN WITH...THEN GRADUALLY EXPANDING TO THE ENTIRE
AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE TRYING TO INTRODUCE SOME
DRY AIR INTO A LARGE PART OF THE AREA BEHIND FRONT...BUT ITS MISSING
IT AT THE INITIAL HOUR. MODELS ALSO ADD THE IDEA OF SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEYOND TUESDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY HERE.

AT THIS TIME...WILL DECREASE POPS A TAD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY INVADE THE AREA AND KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED TO
FAR SOUTH. WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CLOSE TO WHERE
IT IS NOW WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...GFS MOS AND MEN HAVE INCREASED THIS RUN. BUT AFTER
FURTHER THICKNESS REVIEW...AM WONDERING IF THE MOS VALUES ARE STILL
TOO LOW. WILL INCREASE FORECAST HIGHS AND STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE
MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

THUNDERSTORMS TEASED THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
SINCE MOVED ON.  MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW JUST A FEW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THE CU FIELD TO START DEVELOPING AROUND
16Z...WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FEET.  GUT FEELING IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
QUITE SOME TIME...REACHING PEAK COVERAGE AROUND 22-23Z.  ONCE THE
STORMS START TO FORM...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY ADVANCE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET A BIT WORSE THAN CURRENT TAFS
INDICATE...WITH HIGHER PEAK WINDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS.  THOSE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF...AND THE TEMPO
GROUPS IN THE CURRENT TAFS INDICATE EXPECTED AVERAGE CONDITIONS
DURING THE WHOLE HISTORY OF THE STORM.

STORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LINGERING STORMS IN VICINITY OF TROY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  66  87  65 /  70  40  20  10
ANNISTON    93  67  88  67 /  70  50  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  93  67  89  68 /  70  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  96  69  90  68 /  70  50  20  20
CALERA      94  71  89  69 /  70  50  30  20
AUBURN      96  71  86  70 /  50  70  40  30
MONTGOMERY  98  74  89  72 /  40  60  40  30
TROY        96  72  88  71 /  40  60  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

SHORT     61
LONG      75/LINHARES
AVIATION  61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
555 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-222300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
555 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TODAY.  WHILE THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM AT ANY TIME...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON...FROM NOON THROUGH 6 PM.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.  THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS DEPENDS LARGELY ON HOW
MUCH THINGS HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...LOW.
MONTGOMERY...MODERATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

ALZ011-221615-
MARION-
1051 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 1115
AM CDT...

...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE FROM APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORMS...

...SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 1046 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEAR CREEK TO 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR
HAMILTON...HACKLEBURG...GUIN...GU-WIN...BEAR CREEK...WHITEHOUSE...
BRILLIANT AND WINFIELD THROUGH 1115 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW. IF LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED... WAIT AT LEAST
30 MINUTES AFTER THE LAST LIGHTNING FLASH OR THUNDER BEFORE RESUMING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

ADDITIONALLY...SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW.

12/SIRMON