Severe Thunderstorm Warning 278, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION PACKAGE

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WET MICROBURSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM CDT MAINLY NEAR TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS...
ONE NORTH OF A HALEYVILLE TO PIEDMONT LINE...AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WHERE WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIFT HOT
UNSTABLE AIR UPWARDS.

ETOWAH AND NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES HAVE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH 7 PM CDT...WHILE RUSSELL...BARBOUR...
BULLOCK...AND PIKE COUNTIES ALSO HAVE AN ENHANCED RISK THROUGH
8 PM CDT.  GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
NICKELS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

GENERALLY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S COMBINED WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
WET MICROBURSTS.  SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES WERE GENERALLY
BETWEEN -3 AND -7 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 1400 AND
2400 J/KG AT 530 PM CDT.  SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND SMALL
HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM EAST ALABAMA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
INTERSTATE 65...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY...NEAR AN
APPROACHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH...
IF ANY ACTIVITY AT ALL OVER WEST ALABAMA WHERE THE AIR IS CAPPED.
ALSO...LOCATIONS EAST OF HEFLIN TO TALLADEGA TO AUBURN LINE SHOULD
NOT EXPERIENCE ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WHERE THE AIR IS
COOLER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 9 PM CDT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MBS/91

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED MAINLY EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY BE IN THE VICINITY AT ANB, MGM, AND
TOI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BELIEVE ANB AND TCL WILL
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT...WITH
OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING VFR.

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTER 18Z.  WILL NOT INCLUDE VCTS AT ANY TAF SITE FOR NOW...BUT WILL
INCLUDE CB TO INDICATE POTENTIAL.

JD/81

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

07