Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Shelby County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

SURFACE MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A BEWILDERING ARRAY OF FRONTS...HIGH
AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...AND MESO BOUNDARIES.  ONGOING CONVECTIVE
LINE ALMOST BISECTING THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS BEING DRIVEN
EASTWARD BY A CONVECTIVE COLD POOL (AND ASSOCIATED MESOHIGH). EXPECT
THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A TENDANCY TO DEVELOP AND BE
MOST ENHANCED ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LINE. ALSO EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE CASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES -- CAN THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER AND RELOAD
THIS AFTERNOON? AT THIS POINT...IM THINKING THE ANSWER IS YES. IN
FACT...THE CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MESOHIGH MAY ACTUALLY HELP
TO SCOUR OUT THE MORNING STRATUS.  AND ONCE THE DEBRIS MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE...THAT MAY LEAVE US WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE BARGAINED FOR. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DAY HAS DAWNED MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
A LARGE PART OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

MY GUT FEELING IS THAT THE CURRENT CONVECTION MAY DELAY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE STORMS (OR DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN ARKANSAS) UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
EFFECTIVELY PUSHES IT CLOSER TO THE TIME THE UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES
HERE.

WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 1800 UTC SOUNDINGS REVEAL...BOTH
HERE AND KJAN.

.DISCUSSION...NO FURTHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1005 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-110605-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1005 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO LAMAR AND
MARION COUNTIES AROUND 1030 AM...AND MOVE ACROSS WINSTON...FAYETTE...
WALKER...NORTHERN PICKENS AND NORTHERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTIES BETWEEN
1030 AM AND NOON.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY AND AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM.  THE HIGHEST THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE THE AIRMASS IS
MORE UNSTABLE.

ADDITIONAL WAVES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
PRIMARILY FROM 3 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS RESULTED IN SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS...AND MANY CREEKS ARE NEAR BANKFULL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON THURSDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
BE NECESSARY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
707 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

ALZ024-025-101300-
JEFFERSON-SHELBY-
707 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR SHELBY AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING
LINE OF THUNDERSTORM...

AT 707 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER HUEYTOWN...MOVING EAST AROUND 35 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR SYLVAN SPRINGS...
NORTH JOHNS...HUEYTOWN...BESSEMER...MINOR...HELENA...GRAYSVILLE AND
PELHAM THROUGH 800 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS MINOR FLOODING. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS... FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS...RISING WATER ALONG
CREEKS...AND UNDERPASSES WITH STANDING WATER ARE POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH.

JONES/90