Wind Advisory 4, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS73 KBIS 312049
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006


.WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NDZ023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-312200-
/O.EXP.KBIS.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-060331T2100Z/
WELLS-FOSTER-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARVEY...CARRINGTON...STEELE...
JAMESTOWN...NAPOLEON...EDGELEY...ASHLEY...OAKES
249 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$
JF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
LINGERING CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW STACKED OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP DEPICTING WRAP AROUND SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AERIAL
COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARING NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL.

WILL REVISIT MORNING POPS AND SKY GRIDS BEFORE ISSUANCE FOR LATEST
TRENDS. EXPECT SKIES TO CONTINUE CLEARING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING AND PRECIP ENDING
CENTRAL AND EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...SO KEPT THE WARMER TEMPS
ACROSS THE WEST. WILL SEE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS SOUTHEAST
LATER ON THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES UP. INCREASED SKY
GRIDS TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING SOME
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME WAA.

UPPER FLOW THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST LATER SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
PRECIP STARTS SPREADING CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE LOW
ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS FURTHER AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALSO MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PAINTING THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH THIS PATTERN SO MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. ONLY MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW
SHOWERS CENTRAL AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS WOULD EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN MORE THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING WITH
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. COOLED MAX TEMPS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.
USED PRIMARILY A GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MIX FOR SUNDAY AS THE NAM LOOKING
TOO DRY AND TOO FAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DEALING WITH COMPLEX
SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE WESTERN U.S. COAST. ON TUESDAY THE
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF IN PUSHING THE RIDGE EAST AND
BRINGING INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE REGION VIA SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. BEYOND MONDAY...SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE GFS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
THE ECMWF OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING. OVERALL...UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
NO STRONG CONSENSUS AS GFS IS GENERALLY FARTHER EAST THAN ECMWF.
THEREFORE WILL STICK CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST...WITH MINIMAL CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

NH/TWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
410 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-011015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
410 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006 /310 AM MST FRI MAR 31 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NH