Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
240 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FRONT AT 19Z WAS NEARING A WILLISTON-HETTINGER LINE AND PROGRESSING
INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR. SHOWALTER INDEX THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE -3 TO -5 RANGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIFTED
INDICES IN THE SAME RANGE. THE BRN (BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER) FORECAST
FOR THE EVENING LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTING MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR TYPE
FOR STORMS OVER SUPERCELLULAR. THE SWEAT (SEVERE WEATHER THREAT)
INDEX SUGGESTS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE JUST EAST
OF BISMARCK...THROUGH THE JAMESTOWN AREA...AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS IS REASONABLE BASED PARTIALLY ON HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN FOR TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SEVERE
CENTRAL AND EAST...BEST CHANCES AS STATED ABOVE. AS FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE RISK OF STORMS WILL DECREASE AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON FROM WILLISTON TO DICKINSON. FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WASH OUT IN THE EAST BEFORE THE NEXT ONE KICKS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY...BETWEEN
FRONTS...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT RISK SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THAT SUNDAY
NIGHT FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE STATE IT ENCOUNTERS LESS UNSTABLE AIR.
WILL EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN MONTANA LATE SUNDAY AND WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON THE HIGH SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE H500 RIDGE IS STRONG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS AS A LARGE LONGWAVE LOW/TROUGH IS OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. NORTH DAKOTA IS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

BY FRIDAY THE WEST COAST LOW IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE H500 RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED EAST
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

JPM/JV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
422 AM CDT SAT JUN 3 2006

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-040930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
422 AM CDT SAT JUN 3 2006 /322 AM MDT SAT JUN 3 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SOME COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
503 PM CDT SAT JUN 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             NEW SALEM               46.84N 101.42W
06/03/2006  E1.00 INCH       MORTON             ND   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SWICHE