Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

.SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE PROGGED OVER CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND FORECAST
TO EXIT THE REGION BY EVENING. MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS FEATURE LIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...HOWEVER BY FRIDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING WEST TO EAST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LAST SYSTEM THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS
THE ND/SD BORDER KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
EXTENDED FORECAST HINGES ON DIFFICULT TO TRACK SHORT WAVES ROTATING
OVER TOP OF MEAN RIDGE POSITION NOW PROGGD TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH EXTENDED PERIODS. FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT FLATTER AT END
OF PERIODS BUT PRECIPITATION CHANGES WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON TIMING
OF ENERGY. FORECAST WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN FIRST PART OF
EXTENDED AND GENERALLY DRY IN LATTER PARTS. USED ADJMEX FOR TEMPS
WITH MINOR ADJUSMTNENTS AND GFS FOR TIMING AND WINDS.
&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

RGT/HW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-010915-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
405 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006 /305 AM MDT WED MAY 31 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM JAMESTOWN
SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RGT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
128 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-312030-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-MERCER-OLIVER-
MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOHALL...BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...MINOT...
TOWNER...RUGBY...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...MCCLUSKY...
HARVEY...CARRINGTON...MANDAN...BISMARCK...STEELE...JAMESTOWN...
ELGIN...FORT YATES...LINTON...NAPOLEON...EDGELEY...ASHLEY...OAKES
128 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006 /1228 PM MDT WED MAY 31 2006/

...WEAK FUNNELS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

AT 1243 PM CDT A WEAK FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED BY THE TURTLE LAKE
FIRE DEPARTMENT. THIS FUNNEL WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF
TURTLE LAKE.

ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY ARE FORMED BY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS WHEN
UNIQUE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS EXIST.

WEAK FUNNELS GENERALLY DO NOT REACH THE GROUND AND ARE USUALLY SHORT
LIVED.  THEY HAVE...HOWEVER...ON RARE OCCASION TOUCHED THE GROUND
AND CAUSED MINOR DAMAGE.  BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...IF YOU SEE
ONE OF THESE FUNNELS...GET INSIDE.

SCHULTZ/LEBLANG