Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 202208
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
508 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

NDC045-202245-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-060820T2245Z/
LAMOURE ND-
508 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR LAMOURE COUNTY...

AT 504 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR JUD...OR ABOUT 33 MILES SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTH OF EDGELEY AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF NORTONVILLE AROUND
  525 PM CDT...
  BERLIN...6 MILES WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF DICKEY
  AROUND 545 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE...ALONG WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4629 9859 4630 9860 4629 9904 4663 9902
      4662 9865 4660 9804 4629 9805

$$

JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
220 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
PROBLEMS TODAY STRENGTH OF CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR KMOT SOUTHWEST TO KHEI.

GFS CONTINUES TO FLIP SO WILL USE BLEND OF MODELS BUT FOLLOW TIMING
CLOSEST TO NAM. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TO A KDVL TO KBIS
LINE AT 00Z. ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF TROUGH HAS ALMOST REACHED
SEVERE LEVELS TWICE THIS AFTERNOON SO ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE CRITERIA.

COLD FRONT EXITS CWA BY 06Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FROM
CANADA OVERNIGHT. LOWS NORTHWEST COOLEST WITH LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...LOWER HEIGHTS AND TDS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER NORTHERN PLAINS MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM WEST ON WEDNESDAY. PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS ARE POSSIBLE SEVERE OUTBREAK AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH LINGERING POPS UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WARMEST ON TUESDAY UNDER RIDGE WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH IN CENTRAL MONTANA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED...ONLY TWEAKED WINDS...TEMPS...AND
DEWPOINTS.

12Z GFS PRETTY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER MODELS UP TO
FRIDAY. THEN...ENTERS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTION COMPARED TO
OTHER RUNS. IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS IS HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING
PACIFIC TROUGH WHEN CROSSING THE ROCKIES. HAVE DISMISSED THIS RUN
AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PREVIOUS GFS AND MEAN GFS ENSEMBLE
RUNS...WHICH LINES UP CLOSE TO ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THIS
WOULD RETAIN WEATHER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY...WHICH 12Z GFS THROWS OUT.
NATIONAL CENTERS ARE ALSO AGREEING WITH THIS SURMISE.

SO...IN GOING WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH GOOD MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A FAIRLY DECENT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE COOL WITH PRECIP IN THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HW/JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
449 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-211000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
449 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006 /349 AM MDT SUN AUG 20 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND CENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MORE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING...AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE SEVERE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
141 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             9 NE KNOX               48.45N 99.56W
08/20/2006  E0.50 INCH       PIERCE             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND TO 40 MPH

&&

LLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
437 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             STREETER                46.66N 99.36W
08/20/2006  E1.00 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LLP