Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS A FAIRLY GOOD PRECIP
EVENT FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...BOTH TRENDING TOWARDS SEVERAL MCS SYSTEMS
OVER THE REGION. WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INGREDIENTS
OF LIFT AND MOISTURE FALLING INTO PLACE. WILL UP POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
COOLER TEMPS ALSO SEEM REASONABLE WITH ADDITION OF CLOUDS AND
EVENTUAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TDY GIVEN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THAT MAKES FORECASTING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WAVES
DIFFICULT. THIS PROBLEM EXTENDS BEYOND PRECIP CHANCES TO TEMPS...AS
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW MORE POTENT S/WS TO DRAW IN COOLER CANADIAN
AIR. THE 12Z GFS REFLECTS THIS WELL WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR
15 C ON MONDAY AND THEN 10 C WED IN OUR EASTERN FA IN THE WAKE OF
TWO SUCH WAVES. FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES...THERE IS AGREEMENT
AMONGST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS IN THE GENERAL FLOW...BUT
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUITY IS THE BEST ANSWER HERE...
AND SO OUR DATABASE WILL SEE FEW CHANGES TDY. THAT SAID...A REVIEW
OF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS /AND NOW THE 06Z DGEX/ SUGGESTS
A STRONGER WAVE ON TAP FOR THE TUE TIMEFRAME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE
MOST LOW/MID LVL WAA AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED
THERE. THE ECWMF THOUGH REMAINS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND AS A
RESULT SIG DISCREPANCIES DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS
WHILE THE BEST BET OF PRECIP WILL BE CENTERED ON TUE NIGHT...WE WILL
HOLD SHORT OF INTRODUCING TSTMS ATTM SINCE EVEN MOS POPS FALL IN
LINE WITH AUGUST CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

WAA/CJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
525 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-171030-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
525 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2006 /425 AM MDT WED AUG 16 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND OVER SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
553 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             GACKLE                  46.63N 99.14W
08/16/2006  E0.88 INCH       LOGAN              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ENDED AT 532 PM

&&

KWELK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             10 S GACKLE             46.48N 99.14W
08/16/2006  E1.75 INCH       LOGAN              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KWELK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             14 NE ASHLEY            46.18N 99.17W
08/16/2006  E0.75 INCH       MCINTOSH           ND   AIRPLANE PILOT

            ENDED AT 645 PM

&&

KWELK