Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS WEST OF OUR STATE...UNTIL LIFTING OUT TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA TUESDAY. BUT EVEN AFTER THAT THE WEAKLY
ZONAL FLOW LEFT BEHIND WILL SUPPORT SHORT WAVES AND VERTICAL MOTION.

TONIGHT...SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA WILL LIE THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
CAP...AND IT IS THERE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT AND
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST WITH STEERING CURRENTS.

THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT...WHICH THE
NAM12 DEPICTS IN DETAIL (ACTUALLY SHOWS THE WARM FRONT REDEVELOPING
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION
FAIRLY STATIC...AND PRECIP WATER AT 1.2 INCHES...AND LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY I WILL NEED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN MY NORTHEASTERN ZONES (THANKS TO FGF FOR THE SUGGESTION).

THE FOLLOWING FORECAST PERIODS WILL RETAIN SOME POPS (EXCEPT FOR A
RESPITE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY).

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SEVERAL IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AND AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. WESTERN RIDGE STILL
ADVERTISED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA LIMITING THE CHANCES OF ANY
MAJOR PRECIP EVENTS. NO CHANGES WERE SEEN FOR THE TEMPERATURES GRIDS
THIS FORECAST RUN...MAINLY SEASONAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TONIGHT...FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ND
NDZ005-NDZ013-NDZ023-NDZ025

&&

RSL/RGT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
449 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-281000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
449 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006 /349 AM MDT SAT MAY 27 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
629 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             9 W MANDAN              46.83N 101.08W
05/27/2006  E1.00 INCH       MORTON             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SWICHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
731 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     HAIL             5 NW MANDAN             46.88N 100.96W
05/27/2006  E1.00 INCH       MORTON             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SWICHE