Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A SURFACE LOW...OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ITS ATTENDANT WARM
AND COLD FRONTS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS STATEWIDE
TONIGHT...AND IN MY EXTREME EASTERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
CAPPING IN THE WARM SECTOR IS STRONG BUT WE MAY YET STILL REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. AN IMPULSE MOVING EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN
MAY LIGHT UP ACTIVITY AGAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IN THE FAR WEST THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT
MAY ALSO SET OFF STORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL DRY THE WEATHER OUT AGAIN. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR CONTINUED DRYING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN
RETURNING MOISTURE MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL WAIT A
COUPLE OF MORE MODEL RUNS TO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO BEFORE PUTTING IN
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MID-WEEK
THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN AND
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUED
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT REBUILDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST. LATE IN THE PERIOD
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES INCREASE AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RHS OF 20 PERCENT AND POST COLD FRONTAL WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
REQUIRE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ019-NDZ020-NDZ034-NDZ035-NDZ036-NDZ042-NDZ045-NDZ046-NDZ047-
NDZ050.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ017-NDZ018-NDZ019-NDZ020-NDZ021-NDZ022-
NDZ031-NDZ032-NDZ033-NDZ034-NDZ035-NDZ036-NDZ040-NDZ041-NDZ042-
NDZ043-NDZ044-NDZ045-NDZ046-NDZ047-NDZ050.

&&

RSL/CP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
443 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-050945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
443 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006 /343 AM MDT FRI AUG 4 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER..SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS COULD BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE POSSIBLE IGNITION OF
WILDFIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WINDS...GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHERE VERY DRY RANGE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

NDZ019>022-034>036-042-045>047-050-050945-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-GRANT-SIOUX-
EMMONS-LOGAN-MCINTOSH-
443 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006 /343 AM MDT FRI AUG 4 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND THE
THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THIS
CONCERN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WIND BEING THE LARGEST CONCERN...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WINDS...GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHERE VERY DRY RANGE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

NDZ003>005-011>013-023-025-037-048-051-050945-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-WELLS-FOSTER-
STUTSMAN-LA MOURE-DICKEY-
443 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT AND ADVANCING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WINDS...GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...WHERE VERY DRY
RANGE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
512 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             18 SW BISMARCK          46.62N 101.04W
08/04/2006  E0.75 INCH       MORTON             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VJENSEN