Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Bismarck, ND

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Williams County, ND

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 121710
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1210 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

.SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...VERY DRY RANGE CONDITIONS...
AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL CREATE
AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER HAZARD FOR WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING TO SOME
AREAS IN THE WARNING.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE
GROWTH AND MAKE CONTAINMENT OF FIRES DIFFICULT.


NDZ001-002-009-010-017>022-031>036-040>047-050-130200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-060713T0200Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-
MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
MCINTOSH-
1210 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 /1110 AM MDT WED JUL 12 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...VERY DRY RANGE CONDITIONS... AND
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL CREATE AN
EXTREME FIRE DANGER HAZARD FOR WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING TO
SOME AREAS IN THE WARNING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 130206
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
906 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

...THE RED FLAG WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA HAS EXPIRED...

.WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE FIRE CONDITIONS ARE HIGH THE 
EXTREME CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION HAVE DECREASED. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017>022-031>036-040>047-050-130315-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-060713T0200Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-
MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
MCINTOSH-
906 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 /806 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER HAZARDS TODAY...CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MID LEVEL RIDGE. DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PRODUCING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE WRF PAINTS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST...SO GIVEN THE RECENT ACCURACY OF
THIS MODEL...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR WEST 12-18Z TODAY.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND TODAY
AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FA. AS A
RESULT...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH 28-31C 850H TEMPS AND
GREATER THICKNESS VALUES ADVECTING IN. RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES VERY POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. NEAR HEAT INDEX
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT LOW EXPECTED RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX BELOW ADVISORY NUMBERS. AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WILL BE UPGRADING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT WILL TAKE OUT
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. MORE DETAILED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP AROUND THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST
DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
EVENING DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINT
TEMPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO STRONGLY HINTING
AT A 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AROUND SUNSET AND PERSISTING
PAST MIDNIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL
ADD SEVERE WORDING AS WELL INTO THE ZONES AND STATE. ALSO THREW IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST DURING THURSDAY
MORNING FOR LINGERING STORMS...THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON AS STILL
DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING UNTIL THE EVENING.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY AND CONTINUED WARM. WILL
SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE (STILL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100)...BUT THEN WARMS BACK UP
FRIDAY TO THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR MOST EVERYBODY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEY DO DIFFER A
BIT IN TIMING OF SHORTWAVES THAT FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKER...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. BOTH HOWEVER BUILD THE RIDGE BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DID LOWER SOME TEMPERATURES A BIT...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AND RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR SLIM THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...SO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING UP TO
30 MPH...EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 15 TO 25 PERCENT...GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE DRY
LIGHTNING...AND CONTINUED DRY RANGELAND CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT
AN UPGRADE FROM THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY
AND THIS EVENING FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL NOT INCLUDE THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE RED
FLAG WARNING THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY UNDER THE WATCH. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THIS AREA WILL BE OVER 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-NDZ002-NDZ009-NDZ010-NDZ017-
NDZ018-NDZ019-NDZ020-NDZ021-NDZ022-NDZ031-NDZ032-NDZ033-NDZ034-
NDZ035-NDZ036-NDZ040-NDZ041-NDZ042-NDZ043-NDZ044-NDZ045-NDZ046-
NDZ047-NDZ050.

&&

NH/TWH