Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 181726
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2006

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...

.WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE
AND TEMPERATURES FALL.

NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044-190100-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0003.060518T1800Z-060519T0100Z/
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
1126 AM MDT THU MAY 18 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITIES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES 85 TO 90 DEGREES WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 190034
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
734 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...

.NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WERE GUSTY EARLIER TODAY HAVE SUBSIDED.
THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE INCREASED AND AIR
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE COOLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
RESULTED IN THE CANCELLATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044-190145-
/O.CAN.KBIS.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-060519T0100Z/
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
634 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITES HAVE INCREASED
IN THE THREAT AREA. THIS ALONG WITH COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES HAS
RESULTED IN THE CANCELLATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.

$$
JENSEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MAX
TEMPERATURES...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALL THREE DAYS.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES PRODUCING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS RIDING ALONG THE
FLOW...TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SHOWERS WERE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL WAIT JUST BEFORE PUBLISHING TO DETERMINE EXTENT
OF POPS IN GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING.

WILL AGAIN UTILIZE A GFS/NAM BLEND AS THEY ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR IN
LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FINALLY PROGRESSING EAST TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR TODAY...WEAK
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. GOOD 850H WAA WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO
LEFT TEMPS PRETTY MUCH ALONE FROM WHAT WAS IN THERE FOR THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH AROUND 90 WEST. INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...SO OPTED TO KEEP/ADD ISOLD THUNDER
MENTION...DESPITE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK WILL SEE A FEW ELEVATED
STORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO QPF. CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING MIXING UP
TO 700MB WITH WINDS 25-30 KTS REACHING THE SURFACE. THAT COUPLED
WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOW 20S TO MOST LIKELY LESS WAS THE DECISION
TO GO WITH THE WARNING. ADDED ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THIS EVENING
SOUTH CENTRAL FOR ANY LINGERING CONVECTION.

ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER FRIDAY DAYTIME AND
EVENING...BACKED OFF ON POPS DURING THE MORNING...THEN MADE A FEW
TWEAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME...KEEPING IN CHANCE
THUNDER. TEMPS FRIDAY LOOK GOOD WITH A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY AS
WARM AIR RETREATS WESTWARD.  ANOTHER IMPULSE EFFECTS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES CLOSER TO
US. BACKED OFF ON POPS SATURDAY DAYTIME...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE A LITTLE BETTER ON SURFACE
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE MORE SATURDAY WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT RETREATING MORE WEST AND COOL AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

OVERALL A FEW CHANGES TO POPS...AND A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND
OTHER GRID PARAMETERS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
DIFFICULT LONG RANGE FORECAST IN THAT A LOT HINGES ON HOW FAR EAST A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL PENETRATE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
LONG WAVE RIDGE. I AM ASSUMING THE BEST GUESS IS THAT WE WILL BE IN
THE DIFFLUENT TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGE...AND THUS
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW
LOCATION AND SCOPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS...AND THUS CONFIDENCE
LEVEL FOR THIS PARAMETER IS LOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

NH/RSL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
418 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2006

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-181100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
418 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2006 /318 PM MDT WED MAY 17 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044-181100-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
318 PM MDT WED MAY 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JF