Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 072037
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 PM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...

.A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MINOT TO WILLISTON WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL SUNDOWN. CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IN FROM 75 TO 85 WILL CREATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT...POSSIBLY LOWER. IN ADDITION... LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT FUEL MOISTURE CONTENT OF LIGHTER FUELS
TO CRITICAL LEVELS.

AS A RESULT OF THE EXPECTED WEATHER AND DRY FUELS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TODAY. 

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-080000-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-060908T0000Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-
337 PM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S...DROPPING
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...RESULTING IN
RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 072357
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 PM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

.THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE WARNED
AREA HAS SUBSIDED AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TONIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-080100-
/O.CAN.KBIS.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-060908T0000Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-
657 PM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE WARNED
AREA HAS SUBSIDED AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TONIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


$$

JENSEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 AM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ENVELOPING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...CREATING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATTM IS STILL FORECASTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT CURRENT
OBS AND SATELLITE...BEST PRESENT DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE OVER NORTHERN
MANITOBA MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...EVENTUALLY CONTINUING PUSHING
SOUTH AND EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES. THIS WOULD CONFIRM DAY SHIFTS
THINKING AND MODEL GUIDANCE OF BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT STAYING EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT...SO
HAVE TAKEN OUT ALL WEATHER MENTION AFTER 0Z. FOR THIS LATE AFTERNOON
THOUGH...DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FAR SOUTHEAST. WRF AND GFS
BOTH INDICATING 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE HERE...AS WELL AS SOME WEAK
SURFACE FORCING IN PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WELL PUSH SOUTH...INCREASING WINDS FROM THE NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON. GFS AND WRF MODEL
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATING 13-17KT WINDS MIXING DOWN AT ISN AND
MOT...WITH LIGHTER VALUES AS YOU GO SOUTH. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN TODAY. THIS WOULD CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH
RED FLAG CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING NORTHWEST DUE TO EXPECTED LOW HUMIDITIES AND WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ATTM...WITH MODELS
PROJECTING THIS AREA TO MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRIDAY
THOUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THEN WHAT WE SAW
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S. RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKS TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAK REX BLOCK OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE US. GFS APPEARS NOW TO BE CLOSE TO THE
EUROPEAN IN BLOCK PATTERN. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND MODERATE OR NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERNS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ001-NDZ002-NDZ009-NDZ010-NDZ017.

&&

NH/WAA