Freeze Warning 1, NWS Bismarck, ND

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT TEND
TO DIVERGE SOME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING DOWN
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ADVERTISED WITH SHOWERS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING OF THE MID AND
UPPER LAYERS NORTH OF REGINA SASKATCHEWAN WITH LOW CLOUDS LEFT
MAINLY IN MANITOBA. WILL BACK OFF TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR NOW. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY UNDER
AN INCH...AS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS AND WILL ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING. APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP
IN ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA...WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND EAST CENTRAL THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS ALOFT...ALONG WITH
GOOD COLD ADVECTION...AND RISING PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE SURFACE
WINDS UP THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WHERE THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE STRONGEST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE HUDSON
BAY/CENTRAL CANADA REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECTING
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WARMER AIR CREEPS INTO THE WEST WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL
ALSO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN ROTATE AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
LOW AND BRING COOLER WELL BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY AND
ON DRY FOR NOW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION TOTALLY WITH
LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001-NDZ002-NDZ003-NDZ004-NDZ005-NDZ009-
NDZ010-NDZ011-NDZ012-NDZ013-NDZ017-NDZ018-NDZ019-NDZ020-NDZ021-
NDZ022-NDZ023-NDZ025-NDZ031-NDZ032-NDZ033-NDZ034-NDZ035-NDZ036-
NDZ037-NDZ040-NDZ041-NDZ042-NDZ043-NDZ044-NDZ045-NDZ046-NDZ047-
NDZ048-NDZ050-NDZ051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ040-NDZ041-
NDZ043-NDZ044.

&&

TSW/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
526 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-111030-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
526 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006 /426 AM MDT TUE OCT 10 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND APPROACH THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES...HENCE A WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION - MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JV