Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
322 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...

TWO AREAS OF CONV THIS AFTN IN SERPATE SFC TROFS. ONE DVLPG EAST OF
THE FCST AREA...AND THE MORE IMPORTANT TO THE WEST. TROF AND SHRT WV
TO THE WEST WILL PUSH EWRD...AND LIKELY BRING SOME TRWS OVER THE
FCST AREA. LOOKING VERY MRGNL FOR SVR ATTM...MAINLY DUE TO DRIER LOW
LVL AIR THAT HAS MVD INTO THE AREA.

ENERGY WASHES OUT TNGT AND FRI WILL BEGIN DRY OVER THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. LTR...A FNT DROPS SWRD INTO THE NRN ZONES...WHERE SOME AFTN
TROWS COULD BRKOUT ONCE AGAIN.

RDGG BRINGS WRMR AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SAT. SOME MID AND
UPPER LVL CAPE AVBL BUT SNDG PRETTY STABLE OVERALL SO WILL KEEP SAT
FCST DRY.

MAIN CNCRN FOR ANY STORMS THIS EVE WILL BE EXCESSIVE QPF. WILL BE
QUICK TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON HEAVY RAINERS. MORFORD

&&

.AVIATION (29/18Z TO 30/18Z)...
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS... EXCEPTION
WILL BE SCT THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY TO MVFR OR IFR AT A FEW TAF
SITES. PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG RANGE (FRI NIGHT - TUESDAY)...

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN A FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LATEST GFS RUNS INDICATE
THAT A PUSH OF DRY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY... OTHERWISE CHC POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THRU WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
439 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

NYZ044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-300845-
CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
439 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AT MANY POINTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AT MANY POINTS POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL SPOTTERS
ARE ASKED TO CALL IN ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT OF
MORE THAN ONE INCH.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-300845-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
439 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL SPOTTERS
ARE ASKED TO CALL IN ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT OF SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
538 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

NYZ044-292245-
CORTLAND NY-
538 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

* AT 536 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VIRGIL...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MCGRAW AND MC GRAW AT 545 PM EDT...
  EAST HOMER AT 550 PM EDT...
  SOLON AND EAST FREETOWN AT 555 PM EDT...
  TRUXTON AT 605 PM EDT...
  UNION VALLEY AND TAYLOR AT 610 PM EDT...
  CUYLER AND TRIPOLI AT 615 PM EDT...

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
549 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             WATERLOO                42.90N 76.86W
06/29/2006  M0.75 INCH       SENECA             NY   PUBLIC

0519 PM     HAIL             WATERLOO                42.90N 76.86W
06/29/2006  E0.75 INCH       SENECA             NY   AMATEUR RADIO

0525 PM     HAIL             SENECA FALLS            42.91N 76.80W
06/29/2006  E1.25 INCH       SENECA             NY   PUBLIC

0540 PM     HAIL             CORNING                 42.15N 77.06W
06/29/2006  E0.75 INCH       STEUBEN            NY   PUBLIC

0540 PM     HAIL             MARATHON                42.44N 76.04W
06/29/2006  E1.00 INCH       CORTLAND           NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DJP