Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY AS WE WAIT FOR A TRIGGER. WEAK SHORT
WAVE IN NW CWA STARTING TO SET OFF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. WRF HAD THIS DEVELOPING HERE THEN MOVING SLOWLY SE
ACROSS REST OF CWA THIS EVENING. AREA STILL UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND WEAKENING UL RIDGE. WIND FIELDS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND CAP WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. AS SHOWERS
DEVELOP THEY SHOULD GO UP QUICKLY. WITH WINDS FORWARD MOTION WILL BE
SLOW SO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN.

THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES SE IN NYS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

THURSDAY SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH WITH FORCING. SOME HEATING AND
BETTER FORCING WITH THE FRONT CLOSER WILL POP SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER BUT MOISTURE ABOUT THE SAME.
SOME HEAVY RAIN AGAIN...BUT MORE OF A UNIFORM HALF INCH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE CWA SO SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE SE.

FRIDAY IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RAINING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND UL TROF WILL FINALLY PUSH THE
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST. A SFC LOW FORMS ON THE FRONT FURTHER
FOCUSING THE RAIN. TROF CLOSES OFF OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES LITTLE
SATURDAY. WILL BE IN MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY SO SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE. COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS STILL NOT TOGETHER ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP AND UL CUTOFF. TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE
EVOLUTION. TAC
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. AFTER THAT...THINGS DRY OUT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORESEEN FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE AREA.  -MJ
&&

.AVIATION (01/00Z TO 02/00Z)...
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...WILL DOT THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING (ROUGHLY 20Z THROUGH 02Z). ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS... ANY STORMS COULD BRING CONDITIONS
DOWN BRIEFLY TO MVFR.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AN AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL
NY. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT
KSYR...KUCA...KITH...AND KBGM BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.  -MJ
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1025 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

NYZ062-PAZ044-047-048-072-011430-
SULLIVAN-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1025 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
DAMAGING WINDS. MORE RAIN COULD AGAIN CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-PAZ038>040-043-
011430-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
1025 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER
OF PENNSYLVANIA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MOSTLY FROM MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
DAMAGING WINDS. MORE RAIN COULD AGAIN CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

TAC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

NYZ017-312345-
CAYUGA NY-
651 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 646 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEVANNA...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MAPLETON AT 700 PM EDT...
  MERRIFIELD AND VENICE CENTER AT 705 PM EDT...
  SCIPIO CENTER AND FLEMING AT 710 PM EDT...
  WYCKOFF AND MELROSE PARK AT 715 PM EDT...
  ENSENORE AT 720 PM EDT...
  CASOWASCO AND EDGEWATER AT 725 PM EDT...
  OWASCO AT 730 PM EDT...
  MORAVIA AT 735 PM EDT...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PADAVONA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
659 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

NYZ036-312330-
MADISON NY-
659 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY...

* AT 655 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DAVENPORT...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

NYZ057-312330-
DELAWARE NY-
701 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY...

* AT 659 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DAVENPORT...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
708 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

NYZ015>017-010015-
CAYUGA NY-SENECA NY-YATES NY-
708 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 703 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PENN
  YAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MILO CENTER AND MAYS MILLS AT 715 PM EDT...
  DRESDEN AT 725 PM EDT...
  KENDAIA AT 745 PM EDT...
  WILLARD AND LODI STATION AT 750 PM EDT...
  ROMULUS AND LODI AT 755 PM EDT...
  OVID AT 800 PM EDT...
  HAYTS CORNERS AND FAYETTE AT 810 PM EDT...
  SHELDRAKE SPGS AND EAST VARICK AT 815 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

RRM