Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS MOVG IN THIS MORNING THE LAST 2 HOURS IN ELM...BGM...AND
AVP. WILL CONTINUE NE INTO REST OF SITES BY 15Z. VFR VSBYS UNTIL
STEADY SHOWERS MOVE IN THIS AFTN. THEN MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS INTO
EVE. AFTER COLD FRONT PRECIP MOVES E VSBYS RETURN TO VFR WITH CIGS
IMPROVING SOME TO LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR. E TO SE WINDS AT
10 KTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UNTIL COLD FRONT
LLWS WITH SSE WINDS AT AROUND 40 KTS AT 2K FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 312 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT SLOWLY EVOLVING AS THE STACKED LOW OVER KY MOVES
NE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. LARGE AREA OF WARM FRONT RAIN LIFTING N OUT
OF CWA THIS MORNING. PRECIP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN WRN PA BUT
MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. THIS PRECIP WILL PICK UP SPEED AS
SHORT WAVE ROUNDS BASE OF UL LOW. PRECIP WILL ENTER CWA LATE
MORNING FAR W THEN EXIT FAR E THIS EVENING. TIMING IN GRIDS LOOKS
GOOD AND CHANGED LITTLE. LIKE LAST NIGHT WENT CLOSER TO THE FASTER
GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM. MOST OTHER MODELS CLOSER TO THE GFS ON
THE TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PRECIP.

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR NE PA AND CATSKILLS OF NY FOR THIS AFTN
AND EVENING. LARGE FETCH OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH 60
PLUS KT LOW LEVEL JET AND PWATS AROUND 1.4 INCHES. INSTABILITY
MARGINAL BUT MOISTURE AND STRONG FRONT COULD SET OFF TS. IN WATCH
AREA QPF IS 1 TO 1.5 WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE
NEARLY SATURATED GROUND TO START AND LOW FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER
GUIDANCE WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING. FURTHER N AND W RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. THIS AREA IS IN A MINIMUM ON MODELS WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO THE LOW TRACK IN FAR WRN NY INTO ONTARIO.

ON FRIDAY STACKED LOW HEADS INTO NRN QUEBEC WHILE COLD FRONT IS
OFF EAST COAST. SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NY FORCING SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS. NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FULLY GET LES GOING. ALSO
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS W UNTIL SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT COLD ENOUGH FOR
CONDITIONAL LAKE INSTABILITY. FLOW IS 300 DEGREES BUT INVERSION
HEIGHT IS 5K. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MARGINAL
TEMPS SFC AND ALOFT.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES TO START WITH WARM FRONTAL PRECIP IN
FAR N AND COLD FRONTAL PRECIP IN WRN NY AND PA. EXCEPTIONS ARE MVFR
VSBYS AT SYRA AND UCA...AND IFR CIGS AT UCA. LATER THIS MORNING
CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES VSBY CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. THEN VSBYS INCREASE BACK TO VFR WITH CONT MVFR
CIGS. E TO SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER AT UCA THIS
MORNING TO INCHREASE TO 10 TO 20 WITH HIGHER GUSTS SUNRISE ON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROF REMAINS WEST OF FA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LO CHC
POPS THRU WEEKEND.  NW FLOW WILL FAVOR LE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
TYPICAL LOCATIONS THRU MONDAY.  MODEL SOLNS DIFFER LATE IN EXTENDED
AS GFS CLOSES LOW OFF OVER SERN U.S. AND ECMWF KEEPS LOW FURTHER
NORTH.  THUS...GFS BUILDS HIGH IN FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS.  HAVE
KEPT CONTINUITY WITH CLEARING CONDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS REMAIN
NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THRU EXTENDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ057-062 FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM FRIDAY.
PA...FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072 FROM 1 PM
     THURSDAY TO 1 AM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
355 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-170900-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-
355 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. RAIN SPOTTERS ARE
URGED TO CALL OR EMAIL IN ANY REPORTS OVER AN INCH.

NYZ057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-170900-
DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
355 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
STATEMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. RAIN SPOTTERS ARE
URGED TO CALL OR EMAIL IN ANY REPORTS OVER AN INCH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006

NYZ015-022>024-PAZ038-161930-
BRADFORD PA-CHEMUNG NY-SCHUYLER NY-STEUBEN NY-YATES NY-
155 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006

...LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 152 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAYLAND TO HORNELL TO NEAR
  WILLIAMSPORT PENNSYLVANIA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CORNING AND CANTON AT 220 PM EST...
  TROY AT 225 PM EST...
  ELMIRA AND PENN YAN AT 230 PM EST...

THIS IS A LONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND OTHER AREAS
BETWEEN THE MENTIONED CITIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY BRIEF...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY IN LOW LYING
AREAS...AND ON TOWN AND VILLAGE ROADWAYS. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY NOTED ON THE HILLTOPS.