Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
905 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

UPDATE - GIVEN RDR TRENDS, WITH SHRA/TSRA INCRSNG OVER WRN NYS, AND
BAND OF -SHRA OVER NRN ZONES, WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS FOR
TNGT. POTNL FOR SOME +RA GIVEN MBE VECTOR ORIENTATION AND WILL
MONITOR. SHORT RNG MDLS SUGGEST AREA FROM CNTRL SRN TIER INTO NE PA
MAY BE PRIME DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
APRCHNG LOW LVL JET. PREV AFD BLO...

VERY LITTLE PCPN SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL RADARS AS OF 19Z.  SFC FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AS EXPECTED...SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PA
ALTHOUGH IT BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT COMES OUT OF OHIO.  VORT MAX
MOVING OVER LK HURON WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFTER 21Z.  SRN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD CVRG TO PCPN AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO FOCUS.  HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO 12Z GFS SOLN IN BRINGING WAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX THRU ARND
06Z...WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN BRIEF BREAK
TOWARD MORNING.

CONTINUAL WAVES ROTATE THRU WITH ANOTHER ONE APPROACHING SATURDAY.
FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER SW PA WITH TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED IN PCPN
DURING THE DAY.  GENERAL TREND OF LKLY SOUTH AND CHC NORTH REMAINS.
GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT BRINGS
SLUG OF QPF TO FA SAT AFTERNOON.

CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY AS SFC LOW BEGINS
APPROACHING NE U.S.  GFS STRONGER AND DEVELOPS SECONDARY LOW OVER
MIDWEST SUN MORNING.  WHILE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE PCPN CHCS STILL
REMAIN HIGH THRU SHORT TERM PERIOD.  GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
PRESENT AND DYNAMICS IN VICINITY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A
POSSIBILITY AS WE GO THRU THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH UNDER THICK CLD CVR.  LOWS GENERALLY L-M
60S AND HIGHS L-M 70S.

-PB
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
MOVING EAST, WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
ALOFT, WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN UPPER TROF WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWING A
TREND TWD BUILDING THIS RIDGE FURTHER EAST INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH WARMER TEMPS PSBLE.

&&

.AVIATION (26/00Z TO 27/00Z)...
BAND OF -RA/-SHRA STRETCHES FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN TIER OF PA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIGS MVFR TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING AT SYR
AND UCA AND ITH-ELM-BGM CLOSE TO MIDNINGHT. AS LIGHT RAIN FALLS THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
IN STRATUS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.  MVFR VSBYS IN BR WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY MIDNIGHT. TOWARD SUNRISE SEVERAL SITES WILL SEE IFR
VSBYS (2SM BR) AND ELM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TEMPO TO LIFR BR BETWEEN
9 AND 12Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR TO VFR LATER ON
SATURDAY MORNING (11-15Z). -JFC
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-260645-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

PADAVONA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
939 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

NYZ022-260245-
STEUBEN NY-
939 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 936 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND VERY
  HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  GREENWOOD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WEST GREENWOOD AT 1000 PM EDT...
  GREENWOOD AT 1005 PM EDT...
  WILLEYVILLE AT 1010 PM EDT...
  YOUNG HICKORY AT 1015 PM EDT...
  TROUPSBURG AT 1020 PM EDT...

RAINFALL WITH THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

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